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Premier League 2012 Week 3 Tips
What a heartbreaking night of darts last Thursday. We were 1 maximum and one leg short of a perfect 4-0 night. Instead, thanks to Kevin Painter pulling out some more amazing checkouts and Gary Anderson not firing on all cylinders when it came to his scoring, we went 2-2, losing us a fraction of a unit on the night, which puts us at 2-6 after two week sof the 2012 Premier League. So, so close, yet so, so far. But that’s the way darts betting goes sometimes, as I’m no doubt you’re well aware. Still, we’ve got some interesting matches tonight in Week 3 of the 2012 PDC Premier League Darts season.
Four of darts’ biggest names face off in the last two matches of the night, with Gary Anderson facing a man looking to get his first point(s) of the 2012 Premier League season, James Wade. Then we have old foes Raymond van Barneveld and Phil Taylor squaring off in the last match of the night. Before that, we have early pacesetter Andy Hamilton facing the resurgent Simon Whitlock, and then “checkout king” Kevin Painter taking on the World Champion, Adrian Lewis. Maybe not the most mouthwatering of line-ups, but it’s still got the makings of a classic night.
Kevin Painter versus Simon Whitlock.
Simon Whitlock will take to the stage in Belfast as the Premier League leader after two weeks of play. He’s managed a credible draw against Barney in Week One, then almost whitewashed James Wade in Week 2, so he’s playing some of his best darts in a long, long time. It’s a welcome return to form, as I love watching Whitlock play. As you know, his scoring is always solid, but it’s his checkouts that tend to push him over the finish line. Whitlock’s averages have been 95.8 and 96.27, so he’s playing consistently. Add in the floor results in the early part of this PDC season, and you’re looking at the PDC’s Mr Consistency. However, his highest checkout has only been 96 in the 15 legs that he’s won, so that might just have to change against The Artist tonight.
Kevin Painter shocked everyone in Week One, punishing the awful Gary Anderson, then almost pulled off one of the shocks in Premier League history when leading Phil Taylor 4-1 last week in Aberdeen. The key to his game has been his finishing, as his average of 89.84 shows that his scoring isn’t the strongest point of his game. He did average 97 exactly last week, but his 82.67 against Gary Anderson was incredibly weak. So his checkouts of 134, 128, 127, 123 and 114 show the strongest point of his game at the moment.
For me, this looks like it’s done and dusted for Simon Whitlock. The Aussie is playing solid darts, and the only reason he didn’t win 8-0 or 8-1 last week is simply because he got a bit complacent. He gets off to the same start this week and I don’t think he’ll be as kind to Painter. The problem here is the price of Whitlock – 1/2. It’s no value in this format. However, I want to look at the highest checkout market, because Painter has been solid in the first two weeks, while we know how well Whitlock can be at the combination checkouts. The line is 121.5 and the fact Kevin Painter has managed this in both his previous matches means there’s a great chance that at least one of these men will hit the big out. If you add in Whitlock’s ability, the line is low and the price is generous.
Highest checkout in Whitlock versus Painter match over 121.5: 5/6 @ 888.com.
Recommend: 3 units.
Andy Hamilton versus Adrian Lewis.
The rematch of the 2012 World Championship Final comes sooner rather than later for us darts fans. While the Final ended up being a procession for Jackpot, Andy Hamilton will be looking to rectify that and do what he did to James Wade in Week 1.
The Hammer has been impressive in his first two matches, even though he lost 8-2 in Week 2 to Gary Anderson. His performance in Week 1 against James Wade was the perfect start to Premier League life, with an average of 98.90. Yes, his 84.28 in Week 2 wasn’t impressive in the slighest, the 5 180s he hit compared to his opponent’s 2 summed up that he’s got his eye in for the maximums, a fact underlined by his 10 in total for the Premier League, putting him joint top of the 180 count with Phil Taylor. But Hamilton will need to finish well, on top of scoring well, to get the result he wants against Lewis. His highest checkout of 93 indicated he’s going to have to up his game a bit in that department.
Adrian Lewis has started well in the 2012 Premier League. His 104.05 average in Week One aganist Phil Taylor in a 7-7 draw, followed by a 99.32 in a 7-7 draw against Raymond van Barneveld is no surprise to anyone. His scoring his been exceptional, his finishing has been solid and he looks the part of a World Champion. A highest checkout of 140 and a tournament average of 101.69 after two weeks is a marker for everyone bar The Power. He’s also been keeping his head in matches, not imploding as has been the case in previous Premier League outings.
The prices for this match sum it up. Hamilton is around the 3/1 mark, while Lewis is as short as 4/7 in places. The form and the stats all point towards Adrian Lewis, and I don’t see why he can’t get his first win of the 2012 Premier League season. So, like our previous match, we aren’t going to get rich off such a short price in this format. But there is somewhere else we can look. Lewis has a 180 count of 9, Hamilton has a count of 10, so we’ve got an average of 9.5 per week between the two of them. The line is 6.5, which is low, even if the match becomes a blow out, simply because Hamilton maanaged 5 in the 10 legs he played against Gary Anderson, and I think Lewis is capable of just as many. There are bookies going for 7.5 at a bigger price, but we’ll keep it nice and safe taking the easier line to beat, as it’s not much of a difference in price considering the risk.
Over 6.5 180s in Andy Hamilton versus Adrian Lewis match: 8/11 @ 888.com.
Recommend: 4 units.
Gary Anderson versus James Wade.
Two of the games elite face off in what could be a cracking game of darts. Both men haven’t been playing to the best of their abilities, with Gary Anderson losing to Kevin Painter in a Week One humbling, and James Wade losing to Andy Hamilton and Simon Whitlock. The one redeeming thing is Anderson’s 8-2 win over Andy Hamilton last week. Although he did average 84.98, so not exactly playing world class darts.
Anderson’s weakness so far has been his scoring. While usually firing in maximums for fun (and breaking Premier League records in the process), he’s only managed a total of 3 in his first two matches. So an average of 1.5 180s a match. Not the usual Gary Anderson stats. The 128 checkout is a bit better than usual, admittedly, but even his combination finishing has been poor. However, the 8-2 win over Hamilton was a solid performance, very workmanlike and it’s a sign that the Scotsman shouldn’t be discounted just because of a couple of poor weeks in terms of scoring.
James Wade needs to get his head screwed on right. He was almost humiliated 8-0 by Simon Whitlock last week, and even though he came back to win 5 legs, and averaged 96.08, the performance wasn’t good enough for a former Premier League Champion. He just hasn’t been at the races in his first two matches, and although the stats show a decent average, and 6 maximums, the fact is he just seems to be asleep for most of the game, then turn on flashes of brilliance. The fact he’s score the least 100+ scores in the league (28) shows that between the big 140s and 180s, he’s putting in junk.
This might come back to haunt me, but I like Gary Anderson here. The bookies have it quite close, and I just think Wade’s head might not be in the game at the moment, as when he’s on a downward spiral his game really suffers for weeks. Anderson simply has to come good, and last week’s win really helped him. The crowd should also be on his side, as we all know a Scotsman will be welcomed into Northern Ireland a lot more readily than an Englishman. So, back the Scotsman to keep the momentum going from last week and everything should be good.
Gary Anderson to beat James Wade: 10/11 @ 888.com.
Recommend: 1.5 units.
Raymond van Barneveld versus Phil Taylor.
A clash of the darting titans to finish the night in Belfast. While Barney might not be the same player he was several years ago, he’s shown some signs recently that he’s back into some kind of form, and he’ll be wanting to push his nemesis all the way. It’s a great way to finish off the night, and I have a feeling the Northern Irish crowd are going to be right behind the Dutchman.
Barney has had a resurgence in recent weeks. He got a good point against Simon Whitlock and also Adrian Lewis. His tournament average is 98.64, he’s hit 9 maximums and has a highest checkout of 126, so the signs are that he’s playing exceptionally well since his “comeback” of sorts at the World Cup at the start of the month. He’ll be confident he can keep his unbeaten start to the 2012 Premier League going, even though his record against Phil Taylor makes for grim reading.
Whoever writes Phil Taylor out of contention EVER must be out a fair few bucks, especially over the last two weeks of Premier League darts. Starting off the season with an average of 112.79, then hitting a 9-darter in Week 2 and averaging 108.27 sums up his intentions when it comes to regaining his Premier League crown. Yes, he’s second in the league behind Simon Whitlock, but it’s on leg difference, plus it’s still early doors, and there’s no doubt Phil Taylor will be topping the Premier League table at some point, it’s just a question of when.
While it’s nice to see Barney back to some kind of form, you can’t argue with the fact Phil Taylor has put in two awe-inspiring performances to start his Premier League campaign. While Barney is looking good average-wise, it might not be enough to beat Phi Taylor. The one consolation is that Taylor seems to be starting slow, so if Barney can get out the blocks quickly, he’ll give Taylor one hell of a game.
As you can imagine, Taylor is incredibly short – around 4/11 – so he represents no value at all. Looking at Taylor, he’s favourite by around 3 legs, and I think that could be in trouble here. Painter managed to take 5 legs off him, while Lewis managed to get the 7 needed for a draw. Barney is playing to a standard that shows he’s capable of getting at least 6 legs, which would be somewhere in between the performances of Painter and Lewis, which is where his averages suggest he is right now. Taylor’s slow starts should also allow Barney to get a few legs on the board, and I like the look of the Dutchman on the handicap at +2.5 legs.
Raymond van Barneveld +2.5 legs to beat Phil Taylor: Evens @ 888.com.
Recommend: 1.5 units.
And that’s all from Week 3 of the PDC Premier League 2012 Premium Darts Betting Tips all the way from the fantastic city of Belfast. Remember to check back next week for more of the same.