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Premier League 2012 Week 5 Tips
Well, four weeks into the Premier League and we’re currently sitting at a record of 7-10. That leaves us with a loss of -5.4 units. But we’re only a quarter of the way through, and now that we’re seeing the true form of some players, the wins should start coming far more often.
By far the most disappointing result of last week was Andy Hamilton scoring a grand total of ZERO maximums, while Barney hit 5. Just two from the league’s former top 180 scorer would have taken us over the line and gave us a nice 4-1 week. But yet again we hit the bar.
Of course, the highlight of the night was Phil Taylor’s Premier League record-breaking performance in his win over an unfortunate Simon Whitlock. Taylor will be looking to continue that against Gary Anderson, who is also coming into a bit of form right now. In the night’s other matches, new boys Andy Hamilton and Kevin Painter face off, Barney takes on James Wade, leaving Adrian Lewis to face Simon Whitlock. So a lot of talent on show in what promises to be some very, very entertaning matches.
Kevin Painter versus Andy Hamilton.
Premier League No.3 Kevin Painter, new to the league, takes on Premier League No.6 Andy Hamilton, who is also new to the league. Both men will fancy their chances tonight. A win for either man will stand them in good stead, so it should be a cracking way to start the match.
Kevin Painter is sitting on a tournament average of 90.70, with 7 maximums (the lowest in the league), and a highest checkout of 134. To be honest, he’s been steady throughout the weeks, never really doing much damage when it comes to the averages, but just not having a real shocker, either. His 8-6 defeat to James Wade last week sums up how close he’s been in most of his matches, and the big factor has been his finishing.
Andy Hamilton has a tournament average of 89.79, 16 maximums, and a highest checkout of 93. He’s had the exact opposite Premier League debut to Kevin Painter. His checkouts haven’t been spectacular (although his doubling against Barney was spectacular for 6 legs!), but his scoring has been pretty special at times. The fact he was Premier League leader for 180s until last week sums it up. However, he has been lacking consistency in his matches. Plus, 0 maximums last week just shows how up and down his game can be at times. Yes, he was unfortunate to lose last week, but when it came down to it, the big game mentalist just wasn’t there.
This, for me, is going to be a close one. Both men’s averages are close, and Painter’s finishing makes up for Hamilton’s scoring. The Premier League debutants should put on a conflicting show for us, and I can’t split them. But the draw is too short for my liking, so we’ve got two other markets to look at.
First, the most 180s in the match should be a good market for Andy Hamilton fans. He’s outscored Painter in the Premier League 16-7, and that’s after scoring none in last week’s match in Exeter. Also, the player to score the highest checkout in the match is just as good for Kevin Painter fans. The fact Hamilton is yet to score a three-figure checkout after 4 weeks and 51 legs speaks volumes, while Painter is doing the business week after week (well, after the week three debacle!), so there’s quite a lot of value to be had there.
Andy Hamilton to score more 180s than Kevin Painter: 8/11 @ 888.com.
Recommend: 3 units.
Kevin Painter to score the highest checkout versus Andy Hamilton: Evens @ Betfair.
Recommend: 3 units.
Phil Taylor versus Gary Anderson.
A darting clash of the titans in Brighton, as the two heaviest scorers in darts face off in a top of the table clash. Taylor wins, he goes 3 points clear, Anderson wins he goes 1 point clear. Early on in this Premier League season and we already have a huge game on our hands. The effects of the Week 5 results will be felt for the rest of the season for both men.
Where to start with Phil Taylor? He scored a Premier League record average of 117.35 last week, taking his tournament average to 112.83. He has 19 maximums and a highest checkout of 147, so it’s safe to say he’s pulled out all the stops in the first four weeks of the 2012 Premier League Darts season. He looked in trouble in his match against Kevin Painter for a time, then fired in a 9-darter and crushed The Artist. He was pushed all the way by Adrian Lewis, but he has been phenomenal in every match so far. Is there anyone that can stop him? Right now, he deserves the moniker The Machine, not James Wade. He’s a darting machine right now.
After a stumble at the start of the Premier League, where he lost to Kevin Painter, Gary Anderson has found his footing and is now sat second in the Premier League with a tournament average of 89.89. He’s only scored 11 maximums, which is around 3 a week, paltry by his usual lofty standards. A highest checkout of 128 is a bit unexpected for Anderson, as, like I always say, Anderson’s combination checkouts are not the highlight of his game.
If I’m being honest, I can’t see past The Power here. Sure, Anderson’s picking up the wins, his average is picking up, but it’s just nowhere near the level Taylor is playing. Yes, Taylor surely can’t keep it up for the rest of the season, but there is no sign of him slowing down. In fact he’s getting better! Obviously there’s no value to be had in Taylor at 2/5. So I’ve had to look for value elsewhere, and I think I’ve definitely found it.
Both men will be looking to crush the other and the way to do that is the highest checkout. Taylor isn’t looking like he’s going to miss a treble, or a double, so the big combination shots are always on, and he’s always looking to take them out, but even more so against a player like Gary Anderson. Anderson will also be looking to do the same, and so the line being at 121.5 looks a tad on the low side to me. I think this is a great bet considering just how good both men are.
Highest checkout in Taylor versus Anderson match over 121.5: 5/6 @ 888.com.
Recommend: 3 units.
James Wade versus Raymond van Barneveld.
A resurgent Raymond van Barneveld takes on a man who finally got his first Premier League points of the season, James Wade. The slow start Wade seems to have in the Premier League lasted into Week 4, until Wade got a close win over Kevin Painter, winning 8-6. Barney also scraped home last week, as he defeated Andy Hamilton by the same scoreline. Both men needed that win, and both men will be needing the win against this week. So it’s got the makings of a bobbydazzler.
James Wade hasn’t really been disappointing, just a bit unfortunate not to get himself over the finish line. He’s playing a decent standard of darts, with a tournament average of 93.01, which puts him bang in the middle of the league for tournament averages. The downside has been his maximum scoring, as he’s only scored 7 in the past 4 weeks. For a player like James Wade, that’s simply not good enough. But he’s showing signs he’s playing well, as he’s still put in 70 scores of 100+, more than anyone else in the league, and 40 140+ scores, which is only 4 behind Phil Taylor. So he’s scoring pretty well when he wants to, but he’s throwing utter junk the other times. It’s that inconsistency that’s putting him in the unfortunate positions he’s been finding himself in.
Raymond van Barneveld is back to something near top form for him. Yes, it’s not the same top form that won him 5 World Championships, but it’s top form for a player who we thought could be on the way out not too long ago. He’s sitting on a tournament average of 100.38, and he managed a fantastic 105.93 in his 8-4 defeat to Phil Taylor in Week 3 (where he also managed to go 100% on doubles). Barney’s hit 18 maximums, and a highest checkout of 145, so all the facets of his games are working well together. There’s no doubt he’s playing some great darts and he’ll be relishing the prospect of the coming few weeks where he doesn’t have to face Phil Taylor, so he can get some points on the board to get him above his current 4th in the Premier League table.
This match is all about Barney. If the Barney we’ve seen so far turns up, Wade is going to find it hard to beat him. Wade has been playing well with the darts, but he’s only won 5 legs against the throw and Barney is scoring well enough to make is just as difficult. Barney will pressure The Machine and I can’t see why he isn’t odds-on to get the win in Brighton. So there’s a lot of value there, in my opinion, for a player playing the second best darts in the league.
Raymond van Barneveld to beat James Wade: 11/10 @ 888.com.
Recommend: 2.5 units.
Simon Whitlock versus Adrian Lewis.
Last match of the night and we have the two-time World Champion, Adrian Lewis, taking on Simon Whitlock. Both men need a big win to really kick-start their Premier League campaign, with Lewis languishing third bottom, while Whitlock sits one spot ahead of him thanks to a better legs difference.
Whitlock was just a tad unfortunate to come up against the record-breaking Phil Taylor last week. There’s nothing you can do when your opponent averages over 117 unless you’re capable of doing the same, then you might snatch a draw. His average of 105.44 in Exeter last week would have been enough to get at least a point most weeks, so he should consider himself really unlucky. He has a tournament average of 97.29, which is very solid, but he’s letting himself down on his 180 scoring and his highest checkout, which were always the key features of his game. He does have 10 maximums, but it isn’t the best the Aussie can do, and his highest checkout is 96, which is abysmal by his usual standards. The checkout is where Whitlock is going to have to improve if he wants to take full points against the World Champion.
Adrian Lewis was unbelievably bad last week in his 8-1 defeat to Gary Anderson. I’ve not seen Lewis play that bad in a long, long time and his 86.23 average actually reads better than how he played. It brought his tournament average down to 95.47, along with his 17 maximums (second in the Premier League) and his highest checkout of 140. So Lewis is outperforming Whitlock in every area except tournament average. The thing is, I worry about Lewis’s mentality, and if he’s still smarting over his terrible performance last week, it will no doubt affect him again in Brighton. But that’s all part of Lewis’s charm, I guess.
The key to this match is going to be the finishing. We know both men can score heavily, the close averages prove that. But we also know both men can be dodgy not just on the trebles, but also the doubles. And both men can be exceptional, too. It’s just a matter of who shows up. If the same Whitlock that turned up against Kevin Painter shows up, he better pray he’s playing last week’s Adrian Lewis. For me, there’s too many variables to pick an outright winner, so we have to look elsewhere for our bet on this match.
The bet that stands out here for me is Adrian Lewis to score the highest checkout. Yes, we backed him last week to do that against Gary Anderson, but that really wasn’t the real Adrian Lewis, as we know he can put some amazing finishes together. The fact is that Whitlock hasn’t put in a three-figure checkout (much like Andy Hamilton), while Lewis still looks solid on his big finishes. There’s value to be had, so we’re going to hope Adrian Lewis can finish off the night on a high note.
Adrian Lewis to score highest checkout versus Simon Whitlock: 5/6 @ 888.com.
Recommend: 2 units.
And that’s all from Week 5 of the PDC Premier League 2012 Premium Darts Betting Tips from Brighton. Remember to check back next week for more of the same.