September 20th, 2018 MLB Betting Tips

A 3-1 record last night.

Whenever I have a 3-1 night I am always kicking myself for the 1 more than I am celebrating the 3. It’s a part of the human mind that just doesn’t make any sense. I knew that all of Noah Syndergaard’s worst starts this year had come against the Phillies and even mentioned that, but I chose to ignore it. Well, the Phillies won. Seems obvious now.

The good news is that the rest of the games were relatively easy. The Rays won big, 9-2. The Athletics won big, 10-0. The Dodgers covered the spread, 5-2. A bunch of relatively low stress wins and a profitable night.

There isn’t much on the schedule for tonight and the system only likes a couple games. Let’s check them out.

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Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays Betting Tips:

I just can’t quit the Rays and I am going to be sad when the playoffs come around and they aren’t in them. They draw a great match-up tonight that I just can’t pass up.

Sam Gaviglio had a decent first half, but since the second half has started things have been rough for him. He has a 6.00 ERA/4.86 FIP in the second half and he’s facing just about the hottest team in the league right now. The Rays have a 144 wRC+ over the past fourteen days and are just eating every time out there. I think they should do well against Gaviglio.

The Rays are always harder to write up when they use the opener, but Ryne Stanek has been pretty good when he starts these things and the bullpen has been playing very well of late. The Jays enter this one cold with just a 85 wRC+ over the past two weeks. The Rays are finishing strong while the Jays are just kind of playing out the string.

Bet Rays -136

Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins Betting Tips:

Here are two team names you don’t usually see around here unless they are on the negative end of things.

Jeff Brigham is the main focus of this tip. He’s been bad in his first two starts and I think he might be bad again here. He’s had a real walk problem, struggled getting strikeouts and gotten almost no groundballs in his two starts. The bullpen has really struggled all season and won’t be much of a bailout. The Reds offense hits righties decently with a 95 wRC+ on the year. They are limping to the finish, but not as bad as the Marlins.

Miami has just a 67 wRC+ over the past two weeks. Cody Reed has only made four starts, but his last one was encouraging. He threw five shutout innings against the Cubs with ten strikeouts. I’m not looking for a repeat of that here (that would be nice though), but I think he should be able to get five solid innings in and let his team do the rest. This tip is more about how bad Miami is than how good the Reds are.

Bet Reds -133

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