September 20th, 2021 MLB Betting Tips

Three MLB System tips for September 20th, 2021.

Our great run in MLB continued on Saturday with a 2-0 record. Plus, I threw in a college football winner as well.

We also had two top-5 finishers in this weekend’s PGA event that cashed.

Be sure to sign-up for our email list to get our tips, as well as exclusive tips, mailed to you daily!

MLB Betting Tips:

All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.

Question: What are these stats?
Answer: Check out our MLB System Stats Guide to find out.

Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Erick Fedde 105 121 96 92 112 29 139 26
MIA   82 117 83 86 26 79 23
Jesus Luzardo 143 165 91 128 91 5 105 15
WSN   94 95 98 101 9 112 6

Getting some big time deja vu with this one. Turns out, we bet this exact match-up back on the 14th. Here’s what I said then:

The Nationals are a very good offense against left handed pitchers. They have a 114 wRC+ on the season against lefties and face a very hittable one today in Jesus Luzardo. In twenty-one games this season, he has a 6.72 ERA/5.84 FIP. That’s bad.

Erick Fedde is nothing to get excited about, but the Marlins offense is in a bad way. A 88 wRC+ against righties on the season and a 71 wRC+ over the past two weeks.

Not much has changed. The Nationals are still great against lefties, the Marlins still stink, and we’re still betting Nats F5.

Pick: Bet Nationals First 5 Innings

USA: Best Odds: -127 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.78 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/09/20 1:04:28 PM EST but are subject to change.)

Baltimore Orioles at Philadelphia Phillies Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
John Means 101 137 97 56 105 23 137 25
PHI   99 102 102 95 16 109 8
Ranger Suarez 69 35 109 104 108 28 146 29
BAL   97 105 89 92 22 95 19

We’re betting on the bullpens to get us to the over here. Both of these bullpens are below average and even worse over the past two weeks. Baltimore’s bullpen has a 137 FIP over the past two weeks while the Phillies are at 146 over the same period. That’s really bad!

Ranger Suarez has been very solid as a starter with a 1.85 ERA/2.68 FIP, but he’s averaging less than five innings per start. So either he goes deeper and potentially gets exposed or he has a short night and we get into that juicy bullpen.

Pick: Bet Orioles/Phillies Over 8 Runs

USA: Best Odds: -102 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.98 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/09/20 1:04:28 PM EST but are subject to change.)

St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Jake Woodford 122 99 74 103 99 13 79 4
MIL   96 107 105 93 19 97 16
Freddy Peralta 72 67 146 115 100 14 95 9
STL   95 100 87 95 16 97 16

These offenses are about even across the board so this pick is all about the starter match-up.

Freddy Peralta is having a great season with a huge strikeout rate and a 2.57 ERA/3.05 FIP. For the season, the Cardinals have a 91 wRC+ against righties.

Jake Woodford is not a big strikeout guy and not all that impressive with a 4.30 ERA/4.98 FIP. He’s been slightly below average with his walk rate and the Brewers as a team have a high walk rate.

Pick: Bet Brewers -0.5 First 5 Innings

USA: Best Odds: -135 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.74 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/09/20 1:04:28 PM EST but are subject to change.)

Support Us: We put in hours of work for free. Sportsbooks give us a small kickback if we refer new customers to them. If you don't have an account at any of the below sportsbooks yet, please sign up, claim the great deposit bonus and help us out! You have no idea how much we would appreciate it:

Or buy us a pint and some wings instead.

Leave a Comment