World Grand Prix Day Two Premium Picks
A frustrating night last night, even though we ended up in profit. While our pick of Kim Huybrechts was well and truly beat, William O’Connor had a dart for the match against Vincent van der Voort, and Simon Whitlock needed one more 180 to get us over the line there. Still, we went 4-3 and we have a nice starting profit of +2.68, and I think it’s only going to get better.
Brendan Dolan did it again, this time taking care of Gary Anderson, getting us a nice win. It really wasn’t the best game of darts ever, with Dolan’s usual scrappy style prevailing. The two matches of the night were Chisnall/Winstanley (which we got our total number of legs bet up on), and Jenkins/King (which we got our highest checkout bet in). Great matches, all the drama you’d expect, and I think it’s safe to say Winstanley has finally shown he’s going to be a threat to a lot of the big names in the PDC. It was also good just to see Mervyn King getting a win on the stage. Both men had hard-fought wins, and deserve their place in the second round.
Tonight doesn’t look like it has the fireworks of Night One, but those are the ones that catch you by surprise. I mean, Beaton/Smith doesn’t sound like a classic, but you never can tell; we might get an absolute classic and follow it up with White/van Barneveld putting on a darts clinic. We can live in hope!
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Steve Beaton versus Andy Smith.
Two of the PDC’s long-servers, and both men desperately need a big win. Both haven’t been in great form in 2012, so it’s safe to say that the bookies have priced it up almost level, and that’s how I see it, too. While Smith has previous form here, he’s just not in solid form so far this year, so he’s not someone to bet on with any confidence.
The one thing that’s worth noting is Smith’s 140 scoring. As I’ve mentioned before, Smith is a strong 180 scorer, not a powerful maximum scorer. Beaton has the same tendencies, but he’s more likely to hit the maximums than The Pieman. The bookies have this a level market, but I think Smith will win the 140s and Beaton should take the maximums with relative ease.
Steve Beaton to score most 180s against Andy Smith: 7/5 @ 888sport.
Recommend: 1.5 units.
Andy Hamilton versus Mark Webster.
Like I said with Robert Thornton last night, form is such an important thing in darts, and it’s something Mark Webster is seriously lacking at the moment. Compare that with Andy Hamilton, and you have a huge discrepancy. But the prices reflect that – 1/2 for Hamilton over short format with a double-in is just asking for trouble, and you’re not going to get rich backing that in the long run.
So, it’s safe to say I like Hamilton for the win, just not his price. But what I like him for is most 180s. Webster’s lack of form should affect his confidence, while Hamilton is just brimming with it, and we’ve seen a resurgence of his power scoring.
Andy Hamilton to score more 180s than Mark Webster: Evens @ 888sport.
Recommend: 2 units.
Michael van Gerwen versus Colin Lloyd.
PDC’s man of the moment takes to the stage, and the young Dutchman is taking on the experienced Colin Lloyd in what is going to be a cracker.
There’s no denying that Michael van Gerwen is a live outside for the World Grand Prix title, and he’ll need to put in a solid performance here to back his title claims up. He’s in scintilating form on the floor, he’s been playing well on the stage when he’s had the chance, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see him blow up, as that’s the way darts can be. But I just don’t think it’ll happen. But 8/13 isn’t a great price. What is a GREAT price is the highest checkout line. The part of van Gerwen’s game that has come on leaps and bounds is his finishing – he’s taking out 140+ checkouts on a regular basis, and Jaws is no slough when it comes to the combination finishes either. 108.5 is a nice line and I think it’ll go early on in the match.
Highest checkout in van Gerwen versus Lloyd match over 108.5: 5/6 @ 888sport.
Recommend: 3 units.
Wes Newton versus Ronnie Baxter.
A big chance for Wes Newton to go deep in a PDC Major here, and although he’s not been in amazing form on the floor, he’s still doing enough to show he’s now a real danger to all the big names in the PDC. It’s unfortunate for Ronnie Baxter, after his run at the World Matchplay, that he’s been drawn against Newton. I can’t see past a comfortable Newton win.
With that in mind, I don’t think there’s much scope for maximums here, and neither player is known as an out-and-out power scorer, so the price for the “under” on the maximums is quite nice indeed.
Under 3.5 180s in Wes Newton versus Ronnie Baxter match: 6/5 @ 888sport.
Recommend: 1.5 units.
James Wade verus Colin Osborne.
Much like Phil Taylor last night, I think James Wade got a great draw here against a very out-of-sorts Colin Osborne. Osborne never kicked off on his potential, while Wade went from strength to strength. Wade’s a big-time player as he showed at the UK Open, and this match should be a nice warm-up for the future rounds.
But Wade, as you can expect, is no value. But I can’t see Osborne, in the kind of form here’s in, taking a set from Wade, so we’ll look to the handicap for our bet here.
James Wade -1.5 sets to beat Colin Osborne: 10/11 @ 888sport.
Recommend: 1.5 units.
Adrian Lewis versus Richie Burnett.
I don’t know where to begin with this. I usually mention Lewis’ inconsistent form when I write up his matches, and tonight would be no different. He’s been so inconsistent on the floor, taking a European Tour Event (Event 4), but then losing matches he should be winning comfortably in floor tournaments. And he’s now facing a man who is rewinding he clock. Richie Burnett is playing decent darts, and will cause Adrian Lewis trouble tonight. Lewis isn’t the hottest doubler at times, and relies on his scoring to get him out of bother. If Lewis stutters on his doubles, the Welshman may just take him down if he’s found his range. The price is right for a value bet on Burnett, as there’s definitely a better than 2/1 chance of Burnett taking the match.
Richie Burnett to beat Adrian Lewis: 7/5 @ 888sport.
Recommend: 1 unit.
Raymond van Barneveld versus Ian White.
Match of the night? I think so. It’s been a great 12 months for Ian White, and unlike some that have had the same run of form over a short time, White has actually maintained it, especially on the floor, and he’s climbing up the rankings at a phenomenal speed.
Raymond van Barneveld is also playing some fantastic darts, putting in some big averages and having some confidence in his game that we’ve not seen for a while.
This is going to be an absolute classic, and even the head-to-head shows that, with it currently sitting at 3-3, with White taking the last win in a floor tournament in September. Their last meeting on TV was in the Grand Slam of Darts, and White won that. I can’t split them, and so I’m just going to sit back and enjoy this one.
Recommend: No bet.
Michael Mansell versus Paul Nicholson.
Last match of the night and it’s another Irishman facing a crowd who will be inebriated, and backing their man, just like they did with Brendan Dolan and William O’Connor last night. It’s fair to say the crowd in Dublin play a huge part here, and that’s why I can’t just come back and say Nicholson is the solid pick here.
Nicholson hasn’t been that great this year, but Mansell hasn’t exactly been amazing, either. The thing that could tip the scales is the crowd, and like our William O’Connor bet, we’re backing the crowd more than the man; Nicholson thrives on the crowd getting behind him, but this crowd is going to be giving him a whole lot of grief.
Michael Mansell to beat Paul Nicholson: 6/4 @ Betfair..
Recommend: 1 unit.
A great night of darts last night, and I’m sure we’ll get the same again tonight. White/van Barneveld is sure to be a great match, and I have high hopes for our bets. Enjoy the action, and happy betting!