World Grand Prix Day Six Premium Picks

Scott
By
Posted: October 14, 2012


World Grand Prix Day Six Premium Picks

It was one of those nights last night. Paul Nicholson summed it up when he just couldn’t close out the win. So on top of Robert Thornton capitulating and Justin Pipe failing to close out the fourth set, we were agonisingly close, but it wasn’t to be.

The bright note was Michael van Gerwen, and even he came close to blowing it for us. But I keep the faith, as the value was certainly there on the Nicholson bet and Pipe/Dolan set bet.

We went 1-3 last night, taking us to 14-15 and we have a profit of +2.06 units after five days of competition.

Semi-finals tonight, and we open with Mervyn King taking on Brendan Dolan in the first match. To be honest, the surprise here is Mervyn King being in the semi-finals, not so much Brendan Dolan after his exploits last year. So if you’ve backed Mervyn King on the outright, great shout, and I’m sure you couldn’t be happier right now. Then we have the main event, with the tournament favourite, Michael van Gerwen, taking on World No.5 Wes Newton. It’s the two big guns left in the tournament facing off, and it’s going to be a great one to finish the night with.

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Mervyn King Vs Brendan Dolan.

This is going to be a war of attrition on the oche. Both men have plugged away through the tournament, proving their doubters wrong, and both men deserve their places in the semis.

Dolan’s confidence at this venue is downright scary. His average of 85.53, in a double-in format, was pretty damn good, and he was hitting doubles around the 40% mark both to start and finish, which you can’t complain about. It was just another solid performance from the Northern Irishman, and he’s going to fancy his chances of making his second successive World Grand Prix Final.

I could write exactly the same paragraph about Mervyn King, with just a few alterations. King hit an 84.67 in his comfortable win over Robert Thornton, his 53% of his finishing doubles, and just looked comfortable on the stage again.

I have to admit, I’m starting to like Brendan Dolan here. He averaged better than Mervyn King in the last round, he’s got the crowd behind him, and he has shown in the past year that he just loves this venue. He’s a huge price, as far as I’m concerned, so I think he’s got to be the play here. I also think we’re not going to get a big checkout here – both men didn’t get above 110 in the last round, and Dolan hasn’t been pooping in the huge checkouts throughout the tournament. The line is pretty high, and I think we have to be on the unders here.

Brendan Dolan to beat Mervyn King: 7/4 @ 888sport.

Recommend: 2 units.

Highest checkout in Brendan Dolan Vs Mervyn King match under 135.5: 5/6 @ 888sport.

Recommend: 1.5 units.

Michael van Gerwen Vs Wes Newton.

And this is the one we’ve been waiting for. To be honest, I would have enjoyed this as a final more than the other potential final line-ups, but we’ve got to make do with it in the semis, and it’s going to be great.

Michael van Gerwen makes his first televised PDC semi-final, and he’s played great darts to get here. He’s knocked out Adrian Lewis and Andy Hamilton in the last two rounds to get to the semi-finals and he’s shown he’s got the fight to make it. Add to that his great run in recent PDC tournaments and it’s no wonder that he’s favourite for the title.

Wes Newton has stared defeat in the face twice in his three matches, against Ronnie Baxter and Paul Nicholson. But he’s overcome both and fought hard to be in the semi-finals. He’s played unspectacular darts, but he’s deserving of his place here, too. His big checkouts are what got him through, and he’ll have to find them again tonight to keep MvG in check.

The worry for Newton’s fans is his average in the previous round. His average of 75.6 was shocking for a player at his level. MvG averaged an even 85, so the Dutchman is rightly favourite for this. I can’t see past MvG here, his price looks nice enough, and we’ll have a play on that. However, we can also look at the highest checkout market, as both men have been showing in recent matches that they’re capable of high checkouts. In Newton’s match against Ian White, he managed it in 3 legs. Michael van Gerwen can also hit the big combinations, and he’ll fancy his chances. The line, again, looks good, and I think we’ll get it reasonably early on.

Highest checkout in Michael van Gerwen Vs Wes Newton match over 135.5: 5/6 @ 888sport.

Recommend: 3 units.

Michael van Gerwen to beat Wes Newton: 4/6 @ 888sport.

Recommend: 3 units.

Two semi-finals and one final left before the World Grand Prix is over for another year. It’s not quite hit the highlights of previous years, but we’ve had a couple of classics matches, and we’re going to get a new champion, so we can’t really complain. Enjoy the action tonight, and I’ll be back with the Premium Picks for the World Grand Prix Final tomorrow.



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