World Grand Prix Day Three Premium Picks

Scott
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Posted: October 11, 2012


World Grand Prix Day Three Premium Picks

Another good start to the night for the Premium Picks, with Steve Beaton getting us off to a great start. It’s nice when the write-up is spot on, as sometimes you can go badly wrong, but Andy Smith never disappoints. Andy Hamilton continued his great form, Mark Webster continued his poor form. Then Michael van Gerwen knocked in the 110 checkout, followed by Wes Newton and Ronnie Baxter underachieving on the 180s.

And then it went a bit pear-shaped. James Wade blew it for us, and he blew it big time. He was looking good for his 2-0 win, then he lost it mentally and physically. Richie Burnett put up a spirited fight for us against Adrian Lewis, but just couldn’t get out of second gear. But at least he managed second gear, as Michael Mansell didn’t even make it out of neutral.

But hey, we went 4-3 last night, taking us to 8-6 and we have a nice profit of +7.58 units after only two days of competition. It could be better if only for a couple of stray darts, but we won’t complain too much.

Second round starts tonight, and we have 4 matches. We start with Brendan Dolan taking on the lactose intolerant (see the article on Planet Darts for the story, it’s… interesting). Then Justin Pipe takes on Kevin Painter. Phil Taylor faces his UK Open conqueror Robert Thornton, and Mervyn King rounds off the night by taking on Dave Chisnall, in what could be a beauty.

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Brendan Dolan versus Vincent van der Voort.

Two darting sluggers start the night, and it could be a boring one. As I mentioned before, Vincent van der Voort has announced he’s lactose intolerant and it affected him at the World Matchplay. On his first round performance, it looks like he’s still struggling a bit with his energy levels. William O’Connor took him to the brink, and he missed a dart at bull to knock the Dutchman out.

In contrast, Brendan Dolan continued his love affair with the CityWest in Dublin, as he got a deserved win over Gary Anderson, and although he wasn’t spectacular, he was solid. An average of 85 summed his performance up. It was still 8.5 points better than tonight’s opponent’s first round average of 76.4.

The other thing to take away from the first round matches are that neither man scored a maximum. Dolan isn’t a prolific maximum scorer anyway, but Vincent van der Voort’s form suggests he isn’t going to be banging them in either. So I think Dolan’s run here should continue, although it won’t be spectacular, and we won’t see many maximums in what could be a short match.

Under 4.5 180s in Brendan Dolan versus Vincent van der Voort match: 6/5 @ 888sport.

Recommend: 1.5 units.

Brendan Dolan to beat Vincent van der Voort: 7/10 @ Betfair..

Recommend: 3 unit.

Justin Pipe versus Kevin Painter.

This, to me, is such an interesting match. Both men are fighters, they both need a good run here as they’ve got something to prove after a huge 2011, but they both seem to struggle on the stage at times, and you never know which one is going to show up.

Let’s start with Justin Pipe, who knocked out Simon Whitlock in a great match, with an average of 81.37, and a highest checkout of 112. Not a classic performance by any means, but he did beat one of the top players in the PDC, proving he’s a force to be reckoned with in the PDC at the moment.

Then we turn to Kevin Painter, who whitewashed Kim Huybrechts in the first round, putting in an average of 83.5, and a highest checkout of 85. On the surface it looked good, but his Belgian opponent was shocking, averaging 76.37 and missing 7 darts at doubles. Painter took his chances, although his double-in wasn’t great.

It’s going to come down to who can get away first, and Pipe managed it, on average, every third dart, while Painter was around every fourth. If Pipe can get his scoring sorted, he should take this, as he only needs to lift his average slightly, which he is certainly capable of, especially with his confidence growing. The handicap is where we have to turn to, as the outright market just isn’t value.

Justin Pipe -1.5 sets to beat Kevin Painter: 6/5 @ 888sport.

Recommend: 2 units.

Phil Taylor versus Robert Thornton.

A rematch of the UK Open Final. So, that dictates that Thornton runs out comfortable winner. Right? Well…

Taylor’s form coming in to the World Grand Prix just wasn’t that great. However, he comes in facing a difficult match against Michael Smith, and ends up averaging 100.73, taking out a 167 and hitting 75% of his finishing doubles. His starting doubles were at 32%, which wasn’t that greatest, but certainly not the worst.

In comparison, the in-form Robert Thornton won 2-1 against Mark Walsh, after a slow start. But he ended up with an average of 94.6, hit 41% of his doubles in and 65% of his doubles out. His highest out of 67 is the only thing where he really lags behind Taylor’s first round performance.

I think Thornton is going to put up a hell of a fight here, but unfortunately the handicap doesn’t offer too much value, which was where my first look was. He’s definitely going to take a set off Taylor, maybe two, but I can see The Power running out the eventual winner. So where we’ll look is the Total Legs market. I think 16 is quite a comfortable target, so the 15.5 line is what we’re going for here.

Total legs in Phil Taylor versus Robert Thornton match over 15.5: 4/5 @ 888sport.

Recommend: 1.5 units.

Mervyn King versus Dave Chisnall.

This is a huge match for both men. I know I say this about a lo of them, but Mervyn King needs a win to get the ranking points he so desperately needs. Dave Chisnall needs the points to get him into the top 10, which is where he, in all honesty, deserves to be. But it’s proof that the rankings are hard to break through that Chisnall, for all his success, is still outside the top ten.

Both men had very hard-fought wins in the first round, and both had opponents miss darts for the match. King beat Terry Jenkins with an average of 85.14, 45% of doubles in and 29% of checkout doubles. So certainly not a bad performance on the doubles, it was just his scoring that leg him down, with only 1 maximum scored. Chisnall, in comparison, had an average of 86.23, 36% on his in-doubles, 31% on his checkout doubles, but 4 maximums, as can be expected from Chissy.

I think there’s only going to be one winner here (famous last words), but Chisnall might just be getting his footing at the World Grand Prix, and I can see it as the tournament that makes him, as he showed a lot of determination beating Dean Winstanley in the first round. His scoring is just too much for a player like King, so even if he doesn’t get away in his first 3 darts, he’ll make up for it on his next visit, and if he gets away on his first dart, his opponent is in serious trouble. The 4/6 on offer at 888 is a big market leader, and we have to hit them until they get in line with the rest of the markets. He’s also the same price to score the most 180s, which looks like a real steal, so we’ll get involved there, too.

Dave Chisnall to beat Mervyn King: 4/6 @ 888sport.

Recommend: 3 units.

Dave Chisnall to score more 180s than Mervyn King: 4/6 @ 888sport.

Recommend: 3 units.

So while on paper it doesn’t look like a classic night of darts, it looks like we’ll get a couple of close ones, and maybe see someone like Dave Chisnall put on a scoring masterclass. If nothing else, let’s just get the winners in – I don’t care how we get them, scrappy or not. Enjoy it!



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