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World Matchplay 2012 Day Three Premium Picks
Another night and more profit. Two nights down and we’re now 5-3 with a lovely profit of 6.64 units for the tournament so far. The stats didn’t lie when it came to Steve Beaton and Michael van Gerwen, and a 6/4 winner along with a 9/4 winner is not to be sniffed at! Yes, we weren’t at the races with the bets on the maximums, but I guess we can’t win them all, as Kim Huybrechts can attest to.
Betfair are the new sponsors of the PDC World Matchplay, and they’re doing more for darts than ever before – a lot of their markets have more liquidity than ever and no is a great time to sign up there if you haven’t done so already. Plus, what’s better than trading darts matches in-play? Sign up now, get a free £20 bet and up to £1,000 cashback:
Andy Hamilton versus Brendan Dolan:
Andy Hamilton is starting to become a player I enjoy watching. His power scoring was great to watch a few years ago, then he went completely off the boil, but I found him a revelation in the Premier League, and of course his run to the World Championship Final was great. Maybe I should have thought the same about Brendan Dolan after his World Grand Prix run, but I don’t. Them’s the breaks, I guess.
Not a bad year on the floor for Hamilton, with a win in the last Players Championship tournament before the World Matchplay, which was in Crawley. Yes, he did get unlucky against James Hubbard in Dusseldorf, but he’s coming in to the World Matchplay in good form.
Not a bad year for Brendan Nolan, either. A few quarter-finals along with a final on the floor gives the Northern Irishman a place in the World Matchplay for the first time. He’s plying his trade well, and although he’s not setting the world on fire, he’s doing enough to consolidate his place in the rankings.
The big thing here is the head-to-head – Hamilton leads 7-3. Of course, Hamilton being priced at 2/5 just shows what the bookies think of Dolan’s chances. I agree with them, and Hamilton has previous in the tournament, reaching the semi-finals twice, the last time being last year. In fact, it was this tournament last year that really kickstarted The Hammer’s year. But of course, if you know what I’m like, 2/5 isn’t what we want to be backing.
What I do like is the handicap, which is -2.5 in favour of Hamilton. Do I think Dolan can get 8 legs? No, not really. I think Hamilton’s form in this event, coupled with his confidence at the moment points to a somewhat comfortable win against a man making his debut here.
Andy Hamilton -2.5 legs to beat Brendan Dolan: 5/6 @ Stan James.
Recommend: 3 units.
Vincent van der Voort versus Ian White:
A strange, strange match here. Seriously, I don’t know where to begin writing this up, as Vincent van der Voort has had a shocker of a year, not getting past the last 16 of a PDC Pro Tour event since February. But there’s no denying that on his day he’s a class act.
Ian White, on the other hand, has two semi-finals, a final and a 9-darter to his name this year. He’s just playing solid darts, but it’s a shame that his time in front of the TV cameras hasn’t paid off as much as it should have. Does he have the same problem as Justin Pipe?
Well, I think we need to back the consistent player here, as VDV just really doesn’t seem to have his head in the game, and he’s been playing through several injuries, too. White has just had such a solid year and comes into the tournament having reached a quarter-final and a semi-final in the last PDC ProTour events in Crawley. While form is temporary and class is permanent, form in darts is very, very important.
Ian White to beat Vincent van der Voort: 11/8 @ Betfair.
Recommend: 1.5 units.
Phil Taylor versus Mervyn King:
1/6 for Phil Taylor in what is basically his benefit tournament? Sounds about right. -4.5 on the handicap? Again, probably about right. As I usually say, the bookies have Taylor’s games priced perfectly, they won’t be losing much even if the result is completely bonkers.
There’s no value to be had here, so just sit back, relax and hope for betting’s sake that Mervyn King can pull off the upset here.
Recommend: No bet.
Mark Webster versus Colin Lloyd:
Last match of the night, and it’s going to be a cracker. Both men are similarly matched, one is a former World Champion, the other is a former World No.1.
Webster’s just having such a poor year by his standards, going past the last 16 of a ProTour event just once in 2012, and he wasn’t at the races during the UK Open. It’s a bit worrying for fans of Webster, as this draw wasn’t exactly kind to him. That being said, he’s capable of quality darts, but it’s a bit of a risk finding out if tonight’s the night.
Colin Lloyd, on the other hand, has found some quality in his arrows recently. Lloyd actually won the last ProTour event in Crawley and hit a 9-darters in Berlin, so he’s definitely finding some form. Add in that he has the lead in the head-to-head and it’s hard to see why the bookies are favouring the out-of-form Webster against a man who appears to have his number.
Long story short, Lloyd looks a good thing here, and the fact he’s odds-against is even better. However, I also want to look at the highest checkout market, as both men are fantastic on the combination finishes. The 120.5 at Betfair looks generous compared to the 124.5 on offer elsewhere, even if the price is a bit skinnier. But we’ll take the slight edge, as a 121 could cost us on the other lines, and it has done in the past.
Colin Lloyd to beat Mark Webster: 11/10 @ Betfair.
Recommend: 2.5 units.
Highest checkout over 120.5 in Mark Webster versus Colin Lloyd match: 8/11 @ Betfair.
Recommend: 2.5 units.
Could be a big night of darts, with a couple of close matches to go alone with what is hopefully a Taylor masterclass.
Enjoy the darts, and happy betting!