PDC Darts Tips Day 11 (28/12/16)

Scott
By
Posted: December 28, 2016


Today at the 2017 PDC World Championship, the second round ends and the third round gets underway. The remaining second round matches see Kim Huybrechts taking on Max Hopp, followed by James Wade and Steve Beaton, and then Jelle Klaasen faces Brendan Dolan round out out the afternoon session. The evening session gets underway with Peter Wright facing Jamie Lewis in the last of the second round matches. The third round then gets going with current world champion Gary Anderson taking on Benito van de Pas, and then the battle of the big guns, Adrian Lewis and Raymond van Barneveld, closes out the day’s action in what has the potential to be an Ally Pally classic.

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Kim Huybrechts vs Max Hopp

Kim Huybrechts
First round: beat James Wilson 3-0 (98.66)
Total 180s: 5
Highest checkout: 138

Max Hopp
First round: beat Vincent van der Voort 3-1 (94.59)
Total 180s: 6
Highest checkout: 102

Both men in this match, Kim Huybrechts and Max Hopp, seemed to have played well above their usual in the first round. Huybrechts hit 64.29% of his doubles against James Wilson, and never seemed like missing anything. While Max Hopp just seemed to be unable to hit anything other than treble 20s in a performance that seemed to be about 10 points better than his recent TV standard.

While I was impressed with Max Hopp and his classy , smooth throwing action, I think it would take another performance like that to even get close to Huybrechts, and I can’t see it, given Hopp’s usual standard on the TV stage. I can see yet another blowout, like we saw in yesterday’s evening matches, so Kim Huybrechts -1.5 sets is our first get of the day.

Bet on Kim Huybrechts -1.5 sets at https://www.Bovada.lv.

James Wade vs Steve Beaton

James Wade
First round: beat Ronny Huybrechts 3-0 (93.83)
Total 180s: 2
Highest checkout: 141

Steve Beaton
First round: beat Devon Petersen 3-1 (88.55)
Total 180s: 1
Highest checkout: 124

The head to head between James Wade and Steve Beaton reads 17-3 in favour of The Machine, so things don’t look too good for Beaton coming into this. In fact, they’ve met twice at the World Championship, in 2013 and 2007, both in the second round, and Wade won them both, 4-2 and 4-3 respectively. Now, that’s not to say Beaton doesn’t have a chance, as Wade isn’t exactly playing amazing darts, but the stats just don’t look great for The Adonis. Add in that Beaton’s first round performance was just about what you would expect from him, nothing more, nothing less, and you just worry he doesn’t have another gear right now that would stop Wade from crushing him. Wade wasn’t impressive beating Ronny Huybrechts, as the Belgian did miss a number of chances to prolong the match, but he did do what he needed to win.

There’s no value in backing Wade to win here, and Beaton’s price is about right at 4/1, so we need to look elsewhere. Where I want to look is the highest checkout market, and the line is 133.5, which Wade beat in his first round match in just 3 sets, while Beaton got close in 4. Both men are capable of the big checkouts, and if Beaton can nick a set or two, we should see a lot of chances, so get on highest checkout over 133.5 in this one.

Bet on highest checkout over 133.5 at https://www.Bovada.lv.

Jelle Klaasen vs Brendan Dolan

Jelle Klaasen
First round: beat Jeffrey de Graaf 3-1 (96.02)
Total 180s: 6
Highest checkout: 121

Brendan Dolan
First round: beat Christian Kist 3-1 (95.12)
Total 180s: 2
Highest checkout: 102

Jelle Klaasen’s first round performance was, in a word, weird. He started the first set averaging well into the 110s, and then just slumped in the second set, where he couldn’t hit a barn door with a banjo, never mind a treble. He did pick things up to close out the match, but that inconsistency was a bit worrying. As for Brendan Dolan, he was never really pushed after the second set and he just dug in and closed out a decent win against Christian Kist.

I’m still relatively happy with my bet of Jelle Klaasen to win this tournament after his first round performance. He started off like the world champion he is, and then he showed great fight to win without too much drama. I think Dolan might struggle here, but Klaasen is no price to back outright or in the most 180s market. However, looking at Jelle Klaasen total 180s, I like the line of 7.5, and I think there’s a bit of value in him getting over that, as he might get a few more legs against Dolan than he did against De Graaf, so back total Jelle Klaasen 180s over 7.5.

Bet on total Jelle Klaasen 180s over 7.5 at https://www.Bovada.lv.

Peter Wright vs Jamie Lewis

Peter Wright
First round: beat Jerry Hendriks 3-0 (101.06)
Total 180s: 1
Highest checkout: 141

Jamie Lewis
First round: beat Mick McGowan (91.08)
Total 180s: 5
Highest checkout: 108

This looks a real mismatch on paper, as we have one player in the shape of Peter Wright looking in unbelievable form right now and many are tipping him to go all the way, and then we have Jamie Lewis, a player who has lost his way in recent years and hasn’t built on that initial promise. Is there any hope for Lewis in this one? Well, based on first round performances, I wouldn’t think so. Wright just has too much in terms of scoring and finishing for Lewis, with the young Welshman struggling to put away Mick McGowan, who is nowhere near the skill level of Peter Wright. Wright had no trouble seeing off Jerry Hendriks, who is of a similar level to that of Lewis, so I can see a similar outcome to tonight’s game.

However, I can’t find any value in the outright betting or the handicap betting, and I can’t see an angle to take on the stat betting, so unfortunately I have to say this is a no bet situation for me. Just watch and see how Wright plays, as we need that information for the later rounds.

Gary Anderson vs Benito van de Pas

Gary Anderson
First round: beat Mark Frost 3-0 (96.16)
Second round: beat Andrew Gilding 4-0 (102.58)
Total 180s: 11
Highest checkout: 134

Benito van de Pas
First round: beat Tengku Shah 3-1 (91.18)
Second round: beat Terry Jenkins 4-3 (95.79)
Total 180s: 9
Highest checkout: 125

These two men have had contrasting fortunes. Gary Anderson hasn’t been troubled at all, while Benito van de Pas has had troubles in both matches, especially against Terry Jenkins, where he stared defeat in the face more than once. That being said, it showed the true character and skill of Van de Pas that he came through that encounter with Jenkins and can now build on that. Sure, he didn’t show much in the way of consistency, but it was still a decent performance against a former top ten player. Anderson has had the easier draw, but still raced through both matches in the style of a true champion.

This is the first real test for Anderson, so we’ll see what his title challenge is actually made of. Anderson is 2/9 to win, which is far too short, and the bookies have 4-1 and 4-0 scorelines at the head of the market. I’m not having that, and I think the young Dutchman is capable of stringing some form together to win at least a couple of sets, if not more. I think Anderson will probably edge it, but Van de Pas has enough in his locker to push the two-time world champion, so take Benito van de Pas +2.5 sets, and if you’re feeling really brave, take him to win, although I’ll be betting him on the handicap, as he’s good enough to at least beat that, and odds-against is a real bit of value.

Bet on Benito van de Pas +2.5 sets at https://www.Bovada.lv.

Adrian Lewis vs Raymond van Barneveld

Adrian Lewis
First round: beat Magnus Caris 3-0 (93.25)
Second round: beat Joe Cullen 4-0 (102.65)
Total 180s: 10
Highest checkout: 161

Raymond van Barneveld
First round: beat Robbie Green 4-0 (98.84)
Second round: beat Alan Norris 4-0 (103.59)
Total 180s: 10
Highest checkout: 156

This is the first real battle between two championship contenders, and both are coming into this having not dropped a set yet. In fact, Barney was unfortunate not to completely whitewash Alan Norris last night, he was just that impressive. That’s not to say Adrian Lewis wasn’t impressive in his two wins, but there was something about the manner of Barney’s wins, as well as the fact that Barney’s opposition has been better than Lewis’ that makes his wins more impressive.

The bookies are making Lewis the slight favourite for this, but I think that because Lewis hasn’t played since before Christmas, that might just play into Van Barneveld’s favour. Add in the fact that Barney’s recent form has been better than that of Jackpot, and Raymond van Barneveld to beat Adrian Lewis is the only play worth making, as I think it’s great value, and I’d have the Dutchman as the favourite of the two, so odds-against or thereabout is just amazing value for me.

Bet on Raymond van Barneveld to beat Adrian Lewis at https://www.Bovada.lv.

I’ll be back tomorrow with more free tips for tomorrow’s darting action, day 12, which sees the continuation of the third round of matches. Things are heating up now, and the picture is becoming a lot clear as to who will be making that final push to become the 2017 PDC World Champion.

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