The Lawro Audit: BPL Week 6

Scott
By
Posted: September 18, 2015


Now, you might think that last week Mark Lawrenson went a bit mental, predicting 50% of last week’s English Premiership matches would finish 1-1. And if you looked at the results, you’ll have noticed that there was not a single 1-1 draw last week. So that would suggest that Lawro had a bit of an off week, wouldn’t it? Oh, ye of little faith! How could you doubt the superstar that is Mark Lawrenson? He got 5 winners predicted, with one correct score. That’s a 50% strike rate, which is still pretty damn impressive given that there was a huge shock on the Everton vs Chelsea match. Not even the great Lawro could have predicted that 3-1 scoreline.
Now, last week have Mark Lawrenson only a marginal profit of 2.38 units for the week, but, hey, profit is profit, isn’t it? In fact, all he needed was another correct result and he’d have been in real clover after five weeks of the Premiership season. So now he’s standing on a profit of +10.55 units, which is not to be sniffed at. Seriously, if you were following Mark Lawrenson to a £10 stake, you’d be over £100 up so far (well, as long as the Lawro Audit has been going on, at least). Yes, he had a shaky start, but we kept the faith that once he had some information to go on and some matches under his belt, he’d start picking the winners off for fun.
Our prediction software is taking another day off, as it’s still trying to recover from the discombobulation of Chelsea at Goodison Park last week. It’s crunching the numbers and will hopefully be back next week. We’d hate to put up information and predictions from our software that we weren’t happy with, which is why we’ll only put up the tipping god that is Lawro this week, as we’re confident in his class and ability. So let’s see what Mark Lawrenson has to say about this week’s Barclays Premier League fixtures.

Chelsea vs Arsenal

After differing results in midweek, the game of the weekend is the early kick-off on Saturday. Lawro is sitting on the fence for this one and is going for his traditional pick of 1-1. Does he never think outside of the box when it comes to draws? Seriously, I got sick of writing 1-1 last week. Anyway, the draw is 5/2 and the price for the wonderful 1-1 is 6/1. If Chelsea are back on track, the odds-against might just prove to be a gift from the gods. If they go back to playing how they did against Everton, it’s going to look positively anorexic.

Aston Villa vs West Brom

A Midlands derby here, and Lawro is going for a 2-1 win for West Bromwich Albion. The price for WBA is 12/5 and the price for the correct score is 11/1. Tim Sherwood will have been a man ready to kill last week after blowing a two goal lead to Leicester. There’s something to say about a team with wounded price like Aston Villa. Sure, West Brom look on the up, but I wouldn’t look past the home team, because at least we know they can score, but their defence is definitely shaky.

Bournemouth vs Sunderland

Lawro’s sticking with the home side here, and he’s predicting a 2-0 win for Bournemouth. 4/6 is the price for Bournemouth, while the 2-0 win pays 7/1. Sunderland will be lucky to score 0 judging by how bad they were against Spurs on Sunday. We know Bournemouth can score goals, so the 2-0 scoreline looks a likely contender, and could be the shout of the week from Lawro.

Newcastle vs Watford

A home win is the prediction here from Mark Lawrenson. He’s going for 2-0 to the Magpies. 6/4 for the home win and 11/1 for the correct score. You know something, I’ve been surprised by Watford, and I’ve been surprised by Newcastle. Watford have been getting results, well, not losing, and they seem a nice, tight outfit. Newcastle have surprised me by being terrible, especially in front of goal. West Ham sliced the Newcastle defence open, and taking Newcastle to win to nil is surely madness for Lawro? If it wasn’t for the length of the journey from Watford to Newcastle, Watford would be the pick of the weekend. But as it stands, I would be going for a draw, purely because Newcastle are so bad in front of goal.

Stoke vs Leicester

There’s a weird, weird pattern going on again with Lawro’s tips again this week. Last week he was going for 1-1 draws, this week 2-0 home wins are the flavour of the week, as the legend is going for a 2-0 win for Stoke. It’s 6/4 for a Stoke win and 10/1 for the correct score. I’m among the people that seem to count Leicester out every week and every week they show us all up. I’ve stopped going against them, and if they beat Stoke, I wouldn’t be surprised. Stoke aren’t bad, but I can’t see them not conceding to Leicester, as the Foxes are pretty deadly in front of goal at the moment. A score draw is possible here, but unlike Lawro’s favourite draw, I’d look at 2-2 if I was pushed.

Swansea vs Everton

This one sees Lawro revert back to form and predict a draw. Of course he’s not going for 0-0, or 2-2, he’s plumping for a 1-1 draw here. 12/5 for the draw and the correct score pays 6/1 and is at the head of the market. It looks like Swansea might just be a quality home side this season, while average away. I don’t know what to make of Everton’s shock win over Chelsea, but the markets might just be overvaluing them slightly. Who knows, though. I’d be tempted to back Swansea in terms of the bounce factor for Everton after such a big win, and the fact the Swans are far better at home than they are away.

Manchester City vs West Ham

A walk in the park, surely, for Manchester City? Lawro certainly thinks so and is going for this week’s trendy result – 2-0. It’s not surprise that the league leaders are 2/7 to win here, and the correct score is 6/1, leading the market. Now, while I can’t see past a Manchester City win either, I’d be very careful dipping into the correct score market. City are coming off the back of a European game, which the lost, while West Ham are decent side away from home. Can I see the Hammers winning? No. Can I see them scoring? Maybe. Too many variables in this match for me, but I expect City to win, just maybe not as comfortably as other people might.

Tottenham vs Crystal Palace

The first game on Sunday and it’s another London derby. Lawro is going for the home side again, and would you care to guess the score he’s going for? Yep, 2-0 to Tottenham. Originality is not Lawro’s forte, that’s for sure. Anyway, the home win pays 10/11 and the correct score pays 9/1. For me, it’s a coin toss here, and I’d be edging towards Crystal Palace if I was forced to pick a winner. Spurs were woeful against Sunderland last week, they’ve played in Europe already this week, and Palace are showing they they can hang with the best of them, after keeping Manchester City at bay for almost 90 minutes last week. Alan Pardew’s men, for me, are the value.

Liverpool vs Norwich

Home win, 2-0. Boring. 4/6 and 8/1. It’s another game you have to be careful of, because of European exploits midweek. Plus the fact that Liverpool have been so inconsistent this season so far and haven’t really dominated the so-called weaker teams. That being said, 4/6 looks a very generous price given the quality that the Liverpool squad possesses. Norwich could and should bag a goal, though, so it wouldn’t surprise me to see this a 2-1 or a 3-1 home win. Lawro has far more faith in the Liverpool defence than I do, which is to be expected given his roots.

Southampton vs Manchester United

Last match of the weekend, and, to be fair, it should be two teams that have had European football midweek, but it is only one. Manchester United return from Eindhoven with a defeat on their minds and retribution desired. Does Lawro think they’ll get it? In a word: no. He’s going for a 2-1 win for Southampton here. The price for the home win is 9/4 and the correct score pays a very tasty 12/1, so if this is the one result Lawro gets right all weekend, he’ll be forgiven. This, for me, is another tricky one. I hate backing sides that have had a European game midweek, especially an away game, but then Southampton haven’t blown me away so far this season. I like the draw here, as there is, like a few of the games, just too many variables. Would I be surprised if Mark Lawrenson’s prediction was right? Definitely not. So it might be worthwhile getting involved at some nice prices.
Like last week, Larwo has stuck with a specific result for most of the games, that being a 2-0 home win. It didn’t really work out for him last week with the 1-1 draws, so let’s see how this new trend gets on. To be honest, I won’t hold my breath, but then he is the predictions god and I’m not, so what I do I know? All I know is that even though Mark Lawrenson is still in profit, the audit continues.

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