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The four teams in Euro 2012 Group A are Russia, Poland, Czech Republic and Greece.
You may be surprised by who I think will win Group A, but it’s really a no-brainer. The online sportsbooks have made quite a mistake here, and given one team fantastic odds that will allow us to make a bet with positive expected value every time.
Russia are the expected favourites to win Group A. It’s expected to be a tough battle for 2nd between Poland and Czech Republic, with Greece slight outsiders to qualify from Group A.
In this article, we are going to analyze the Group A Betting Odds, and who we should be betting on to win Euro 2012 Group A.
The first thing we can easily say is that there is value in betting someone other than Russia to win Group A. There really is.
The qualifying groups may have been misleading in terms of Russia and their defense. They were in Group B Qualifiers with a lot of low scoring teams, which is why they only conceded 4 goals in 10 games. In reality, the Russia defense can be very leaky. Russia have a solid defense and a tremendous keeper in Igor Akinfeev – but these guys can make mistakes – a lot of them.
So there is tremendous value in betting someone other than Russia to Win Group A.
Who should we betting however, and where should we be betting? Well the odds are all good on Poland, Czech Republic AND Greece as winners, so based on a pure math standpoint, ANY of those Group A winner bets are recommended.
For me however, the best odds to bet on the Group A Winners are Greece. Yes, the least favoured team in the Group is the one I recommend you bet to win Group A.
Greece are a very solid and disciplined team, and when we break them down via any of the Group A opponents, you can see them grinding out 1-0 wins every time. Greece are a very sturdy team who have absolutely no problem with grinding out the results.
Poland are co-hosts and are going to be very nervous with that sort of pressure on top of them – which is perfect for Greece to take advantage of. Czech Republic are a very sloppy team who really shouldn’t even be there – they get very lucky thanks to some bad referee decisions against Scotland. Russia are the only team that will concern Greece, but as mentioned, Greece will not be prone to making any mistakes, and will come up with a game plan to really exploit Russia.