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Before we begin to look at who to bet on for the UEFA Euro 2012 Top Goalscorer award, we need to go back in history to the last few European Championships tournaments.
By looking at the previous Euro tournaments top goalscorers, we can see if there is any sort of trend and any suggestions as to who we should bet. Simply deciding “Okay Spain will win, so I’ll bet one of their strikers” is the sort of outdated thinking that the sportsbooks love.
Along with the top goalscorer for the tournament, we also need to look at who came close, as that can give us help in choosing who will be the Euro 2012 Top Goalscorer based on the betting odds.
Before I go any further – I notice a lot of people searching and finding this site for the phrase Euro 2012 Top Goalscorer Betting Odds. While I highly recommend you read the full article, I’m going to paste the Euro 2012 Top Goalscorer odds below to help you find what you are looking for quickly:
| Player: | Bet365 | Paddy Power | Triobet | Tower | Bodog |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Gomez | 7/1 | 7/1 | 6/1 | N/A | 7/1 |
| Robin Van Persie | 9/1 | 10/1 | 8/1 | N/A | 9/1 |
| Cristiano Ronaldo | 12/1 | 14/1 | 11/1 | N/A | 12/1 |
| Miroslav Klose | 14/1 | 14/1 | 15/1 | N/A | 12/1 |
| David Villa | 16/1 | 14/1 | 13/1 | N/A | 12/1 |
| Klaas-Jan Huntelaar | 16/1 | 16/1 | 14/1 | N/A | 16/1 |
| Fernando Torres | 16/1 | 20/1 | 14/1 | N/A | 14/1 |
| Karim Benzema | 16/1 | 20/1 | 16/1 | N/A | 20/1 |
| Fernando Llorente | 16/1 | 16/1 | 14/1 | N/A | 20/1 |
| Roberto Soldado | 20/1 | 20/1 | 14/1 | N/A | 20/1 |
| Lukas Podolski | 20/1 | 25/1 | 24/1 | N/A | 20/1 |
| Robert Lewandowski | 20/1 | 40/1 | 29/1 | N/A | N/A |
| Wayne Rooney | 25/1 | 33/1 | 24/1 | N/A | 33/1 |
| Giampaolo Pazzini | 25/1 | 22/1 | 19/1 | N/A | 20/1 |
| Thomas Muller | 25/1 | 25/1 | 29/1 | N/A | 20/1 |
| Antonio Di Natale | 25/1 | 25/1 | 24/1 | N/A | N/A |
| Mario Balotelli | 25/1 | 50/1 | 29/1 | N/A | 16/1 |
| Zlatan Ibrahimovic | 50/1 | 50/1 | 54/1 | N/A | 40/1 |
This is not the complete list of Euro 2012 Top Goalscorers but more the main list with the main favourites listed. To see the full list that features the likes of Danny Welbeck etc, click on any of the betting odds above.
Now, we will quickly look at the previous 3 Euro Championships to see what we can learn from them:
Euro 2008 Top Goalscorer:
David Villa was #1 with 4 goals, as Spain win Euro 2008. However it should be noted that Villas only goals were in the 2 group matches he played in. There were then 4 players on 3 goals – Lukas Podolski, Hakan Yakin, Semih Senturk and Roman Pavlyuchenko. Pavlyuchenko scored 1 in the post-group stages and Semih scored twice. All of Podolski and Yakins goals were scored in the group stages.
Euro 2004 Top Goalscorer:
Milan Baros was #1 with 5 goals, as Czech Republic went to the semi-finals. On 4 goals were Van Nistelrooy and Rooney. Baros scored 3 of his goals in the group stages, and ALL of Van Nistelrooy and Rooneys goals were scored within the group stages.
Euro 2000 Top Goalscorer:
The top 2 goalscorers were Patrick Kluivert and Savo Milosevic on 5 goals. Nuno Gomes was next on 4 goals. 4 of Milosevics goals were in the group stages, and Kluivert hit a freak hat-trick against Yugoslavia in the Quarter-Finals, his only post-group tournament goals. Nuno Gomes was the only difference-maker for the past 3 European Championships, with 3 of his 4 goals in the post-group stages.
What We’ve Learned: Nuno Gomes aside, it is pretty obvious that you can practically forget about the post-group stages, when it comes to determining the Euro 2012 Top Goalscorer. When it comes to determining the Euro 2012 Top Goalscorer, we need to look at the group stages and who is going to score more.
However even more importantly – we are looking for a player that will play all 3 group games. If a team wins their first two games and qualify then it is possible they will rest a player(such as Spain did with Villa) rather than risk him in the final group game.
Based on all of this – Klaas-Jan Huntelaar is my #1 Bet bar none. Holland have a tricky group of Germany, Portugal and Denmark. What this means is that all 3 games are going to be important for them, and they are going to rely heavily on Huntelaar scoring the goals. They also have a good chance at qualification which is a nice bonus. Huntelaar was the leading goalscorer in the Euro 2012 qualifiers. Holland are a free-flowing team that score a lot of goals(averaging almost 4 goals a game in the qualifiers) and Huntelaar, especially with his betting odds, is a fantastic choice.
My second pick is Zlatan Ibrahimovic who is as high as 50/1 at some of the sportsbooks. Sweden are a free-scoring team, and in a group with England, France and Ukraine have a fantastic chance at qualifying. However it will be a struggle which means every game will be important, which means Zlatan is the #2 choice for me for Euro 2012 leading goalscorer.
Really, for me those are the two best bets for the Euro 2012 Top Goalscorer.
I recommend staying away from Germanys main strikers, Mario Gomez and Miroslave Klose. Klose showed up at Euro 2012 with an ankle injury. It’s likely both these players will be in rotation which means less goals.
