[Get Exclusive Tips on our Patreon, Ad-Free]
The second game in Group F and also the final game of the first round of fixtures is between Portugal and Iceland, which will take place of June 14th at the Stade Geoffroy-Guichard in Saint-Etienne.
Portugal qualified comfortably is unspectacularly for Euro 2016 after winning Group I ahead of Albania, Denmark, Serbia and Armenia. Portugal won 7 out of their 8 games, and lost 1. Their only defeat was a 1-0 defeat at home by Albania. Portugal scored 11 and conceded 5 in Group I, with 8 of those goals scored coming against the two bottom teams in the group, Serbia and Armenia. In fact, what’s interesting is that out of Portugal’s 7 wins, 4 of them were 1-0 wins, and their only defeat was a 1-0 scoreline, as well. Again, it’s worth noting that out of their 11 goals, 5 came from the living legend that is Cristiano Ronaldo. It’s safe to say that there will be a lot of pressure on the Real Madrid forward to get the job done for Portugal and carry his nation through Group F and into the knockout stages.
As for Iceland, they managed to surprise everyone by finishing second in a very tight Group A, behind the Czech Republic and ahead of Turkey, the Netherlands, Kazakhstan and Latvia. Iceland won 6 games out of 10, drew 2 and lost 2. They were undefeated at home, and their only blip at home came with a 0-0 draw against Kazakhstan. Their two defeats came away to the Czechs and Turkey. Their 2 draws actually came at home against the bottom two teams in the group, Kazakhstan and Latvia. Iceland scored 17 goals and conceded 6, keeping 6 clean sheets in total, in what was a very solid qualifying performance in a really tough group. Gylfi Sigurosson was Iceland’s top goalscorer in qualifying with 6 goals, and, like Cristiano Ronaldo, an entire country will be looking to him to make Euro 2016 even more memorable for the tiny Scandinavian country.
Portugal and Iceland have, amazingly, only played each other twice in the past, with Portugal winning both games in qualification for Euro 2012. In Iceland, Portugal won 3-1, and in Portugal, the home side won 5-3 in a great game.
Portugal vs Iceland Match Betting Odds:
Portugal: 1.62, 8/13, -162
Iceland: 6.0, 5/1, +500
Draw: 3.5, 5/2, +250
Portugal vs Iceland Match Betting Tips:
For me, Portugal are ridiculously short. There’s no value to be had in a team that’s struggled to score in qualifying against some average sides. It’s the trademark of Portuguese sides that they somehow fail to gel, and if Cristiano Ronaldo doesn’t turn up, they’re almost clueless. Iceland look decent value, and they did take care of a Dutch side that bears a lot of similarities to the Portuguese team. However, we’re looking to hedge out bets and we’ll take the double chance option and take Iceland & Draw, which is around 5/4, or 2.25 in decimal odds if you prefer that.
Portugal vs Iceland Prop Bets:
The bookies aren’t stupid when it comes to Portugal. Cristiano Ronaldo is as big as Evens (2.0) and as short as 4/7 (1.57) to score at any time in this game. Is that value? Not at all. It’s terrible value given that Portugal are a low-scoring team, and Iceland keep a lot of clean sheets. But those Icelandic clean sheets (as well as Portugal’s, to be fair), mean under 2.5 goals is definitely the way to play here. Sure, they’re had high-scoring games in the past, but Iceland have finally qualified for a major championship, and it was all down to their defence – it’s pretty damn impressive, especially when you consider how tough their group was.