ALDS Game 1 MLB Betting Tips

Last night’s game was 1-1 for 8.2 innings and then Chris Taylor hit a walk-off two-run homerun. That homerun cost us the win on the Cardinals -1.5 play. You couldn’t have just hit a double, Chris? Come on!

Not the start we wanted to the playoffs, but I think the logic was right. It was a lot closer than the sportsbooks expected. They just got the one outcome from that at-bat that would lead to a loss. That’s baseball.

The real playoffs start tonight. Let’s start the real winning.

All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.

Question: What are these stats?
Answer: Check out our MLB System Stats Guide to find out.

Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- 2H
wRC+ 2H
Rank
Lance Lynn 76 83 120 83 85 1 82 2
HOU   104 85 107 116 1 116 3
Lance McCullers Jr. 83 56 117 131 99 15 95 12
CHW   98 100 114 109 3 109 6

This is a rare one for the system as it sees this game as a dead heat. If you move the decimal point a couple of places it very, very, very slightly likes the White Sox. This is a coinflip game if there ever was one.

The Astros are a -133 favorite so you could make an argument that the White Sox are a value here, but I don’t bet against the System. If the System says the game ends in a tie, it is going to end in a tie. A thousand years of baseball history be damned.

All due respect to both of these two starters who are Very Good, but these offenses are dangerous. Lynn is the better starter, but has the worse homerun numbers against the more powerful team. McCullers has a high walk rate against a team that loves to walk. The Astros are the best offense in the playoffs and the White Sox are right there behind them.

Can you tell what I’m going to pick? I’m picking the over. It feels like this will be a series filled with them. Why not start now?

Pick: Bet Astros/White Sox Over 8

Canada: Best Odds: 2.00 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: +100 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 2.00 at Bet365 – Get Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/10/07 6:00:30 AM EST but are subject to change.)

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Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- 2H
wRC+ 2H
Rank
Eduardo Rodriguez 80 88 119 80 96 8 101 18
TBR   110 108 111 109 3 120 1
Shane McClanahan 82 82 118 86 88 3 89 6
BOS   111 99 99 107 6 112 4

I am picking another over here.

Eduardo Rodriguez had a good season, but he barely average five innings per start. The leash is always shorter in the playoffs and the bullpen will come into play early here. The Rays killed lefties this year with a 107 wRC+ against southpaws. They were also the very best offense in baseball in the second half. The Red Sox bullpen is one of the worst in the playoffs with a 101 FIP- in the second half.

Shane McClanahan was very good this season, but he averaged just five innings per start on the season. He’s not going to go deep here and I’d be surprised to see him even do the full five. Again, playoffs and short leashes. The Red Sox offense is one of the most powerful in the playoffs with a 111 isolated slugging.

Pick: Bet Rays/Red Sox Over 8 Runs

Canada: Best Odds: 1.91 at Sports Interaction – $125 Bonus
USA: Best Odds: +100 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 2.00 at Bet365 – Get Bet Credits
(Odds correct as of 2021/10/07 6:00:30 AM EST but are subject to change.)

Support Us: We put in hours of work for free. Sportsbooks give us a small kickback if we refer new customers to them. If you don't have an account at any of the below sportsbooks yet, please sign up, claim the great deposit bonus and help us out! You have no idea how much we would appreciate it:

Or buy us a pint and some wings instead.

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