April 19th, 2019 MLB Betting Tips

Vin

An 0-1 record last night.

The Phillies offense was shutdown last night and were unable to beat the Rockies. This is what happens when your top four hitters go a combined 0-for-14. I probably underrated Kyle Freeland a bit here, but I think this game was a good value overall.

I decided to experiment tonight with using some current season stats for the starters. I tried to adjust if any were truly ridiculous one way or the other, but for the most part I’m taking guys based on what they’ve done. Most starters have at least three starts so we are getting there. I’ll see how this goes over the weekend as the goal is to get to all current season stats by sometime next month.

Friday means a full slate with every team in action. Let’s get into it.

Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Betting Tips:

I am a big fan of what Carlos Rodon has done early this season and I think it continues here against the Tigers. Rodon has posted a 3.27 ERA/1.83 FIP in three starts this year with very impressive strikeout numbers. I don’t think these are empty numbers either as he’s really increased his slider usage and that pitch is a dangerous pitch from him. This is a nice match-up as the Tigers have posted just a 63 wRC+ on the season thus far.

I got burned going against Jordan Zimmerman a couple of times early this season, but in his last start he showed what I think he should be in certain match-ups when he gave up five runs on eight hits to the Twins. I think he is an exploitable pitcher as he has low strikeouts and allows the long ball. The White Sox offense isn’t perfect, but they can send one out of the park.

Bet White Sox -105

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Tips:

A rematch of last year’s National League Championship Series and I’m expecting a similar result tonight. Jhoulys Chacin goes for Milwaukee and in his last start, also against the Dodgers, he allowed six runs on three walks and six hits in 2.1 innings. He’s made four starts this year and his BB/9 and HR/9 are looking terrible. The Dodgers offense is always threatening.

Ross Stripling is nothing special overall, but he did just throw eight innings of four-hit, one-run ball against this Brewers team in his last start.

The recency bias stats are jumping off the page here and I have a hard time going against LA here.

Bet Dodgers -119

Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels Betting Tips:

The Mariners broke out of their prolonged hitting slump in a big way against the Angels last night and I could see that rolling over here. Felix Pena is yet to make it through the fifth inning in any of his three starts this season. The Mariners offense is very capable of taking him deep which has been a problem in two of his three starts.

My big reason for this pick though is Marco Gonzales who has been great for Seattle this season. I don’t love his low strikeout numbers, but a 3.19 ERA/3.39 FIP is pretty good in this league. It also doesn’t hurt that he’s facing an Angels offense that has slashed a batting line of .215/.305/.350. Going with the Mariners to continue the onslaught they started last night.

Bet Mariners -110

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