April 19th, 2021 MLB Betting Tips

A short schedule today with a lot of teams off.

It’s nice to have a day like this as I was able to experiment with the full system a bit. The stats aren’t quite there yet, but it’s interesting to look at what it says versus what my partial system says.

One thing that I am excited about the new system is what I am calling KBH. It takes a team’s strikeout rate, walk rate, and homerun rate and compares them against the opposing starter’s same three stats. So a high strikeout pitcher against a low strikeout team will be dinged a bit and a high homerun rate pitcher against a low homerun rate team will get a bit of a bonus. That’s the theory and I like what I’ve seen thus far.

A good example from today, for a game that I don’t have a pick on, is Justus Sheffield versus the Dodgers. Sheffield has a 95 FIP- projection on the season so we’re looking for him to be about 5% better than the average pitcher. However, he is facing one of the best offenses in the league. He has a high walk projection and strikeouts batters at a below average rate. While the Dodgers are one of the highest walk rate teams with a low strikeout percentage. So instead of him being a 95, we project him to be a 111 against this offense.

I think that number is a little high so I’m still testing and tweaking, but it’s something I’m pretty pumped about.

Best Odds for MLB:

Type of Bet / Prop: Where To Bet:
R + H + E BetOnline
MLB Grand Salami (Total Runs That Day) Bovada
World Series Futures SportsBetting.ag
5 Inning Run Lines BetOnline
1st Inning Moneylines Bovada
Total Team Runs Over/Under Bovada

All tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.

St. Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals Betting Tips:

Starter FIP- wRC+ Rank L14 Rank Bullpen Rank L14 Rank Park
STL Jack Flaherty 73 98 19 96 15 96 12 106 15
WSN Joe Ross 104 104 12 97 14 101 23 125 25 103

Neither of these teams have hit very well early, but Jack Flaherty looks like the much better pitcher in this match-up. I have the projections at a 5.06 FIP for Joe Ross this season and the Cardinals should be able to hit him today. He’s been lucky early with a 100% left on base percentage. That won’t continue.

Flaherty has better strikeout numbers and is good at keeping his walks done. The Nationals offense was pretty quiet all weekend and hopefully that blends into this week as well.

Bet Cardinals -115

San Francisco Giants at Philadelphia Phillies Betting Tips:

Starter FIP- wRC+ Rank L14 Rank Bullpen Rank L14 Rank Park
SFG Kevin Gausman 73 98 19 84 26 94 7 105 14
PHI Chase Anderson 116 104 12 84 26 100 19 106 15 101

Chase Anderson is the worst pitcher on the board today and this looks like a really nice value. He has low strikeouts, bad control, and gives up the long ball. He is exactly the kind of pitcher that we like to target.

Kevin Gausman has looked good in his first three starts of the year with a 3.20 ERA/3.36 FIP to start the year. The Phillies offense has been a disappointment early. Another good value here.

Bet Giants -115

Tampa Bay Rays at Kansas City Royals Betting Tips:

Starter FIP- wRC+ Rank L14 Rank Bullpen Rank L14 Rank Park
TBR Josh Fleming 95 102 15 100 12 90 4 113 21
KCR Danny Duffy 96 94 25 95 17 100 20 109 19 103

This might be small sample size theatre, but the the Royals and Rays have both hit lefties very hard this season and they each are facing an average-ish lefty in this one. Both starters are prone to the homerun and neither one is a particularly good strikeout pitcher.

Additionally, each bullpen has performed on the low end to start the season. This total is set way too low as I would have it about a run higher. The system projects this game for 9+ runs.

Bet Rays/Royals Over 7.5 Runs

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