April 20th, 2021 MLB Betting Tips

A 2-1 record last night.

A very easy win for the Cardinals yesterday as they jumped all over Joe Ross. We also got the win with the Giants who shutout the Phillies.

Our lone loss was the over in the Rays/Royals game. There were definitely some opportunities, but the cold definitely had a bigger effect on this game than I thought going in. Always check the weather! I use the weather page at RotoGrinders.

Cubs/Mets is actually a game that the system likes the over, but it’s going to be near freezing at first pitch. There will be plenty of games where the weather will benefit us in Wrigley this summer. No need to force things now.

To follow-up on what I wrote yesterday about the KBH system where I take a pitcher’s strikeout, walk, and homerun rate and compare them against the team they are facing. I had kind of a breakthrough after writing it all out yesterday. I realized it’s not a number for rating that pitcher, but for rating how hard that match-up will be for that pitcher based on his strengths/weaknesses and the team he is facing’s strengths/weakness. Almost like a park factor. So, in the example I used yesterday I said Justus Sheffield went from a 95 to a 111. That was wrong. He’s still a 95 pitcher, but that match-up was 11% harder than an average start for him.

Like I said yesterday, I’m still tweaking. Writing this out and sharing the process definitely helps. Hit me up on twitter if you have any thoughts or ideas when it comes to improving the system.

Best Odds for MLB:

Type of Bet / Prop: Where To Bet:
R + H + E BetOnline
MLB Grand Salami (Total Runs That Day) Bovada
World Series Futures SportsBetting.ag
5 Inning Run Lines BetOnline
1st Inning Moneylines Bovada
Total Team Runs Over/Under Bovada

All tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.

St. Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals Betting Tips:

Starter FIP- wRC+ Rank L14 Rank Bullpen Rank L14 Rank Park
STL Adam Wainwright 97 98 19 98 12 96 12 101 12
WSN Patrick Corbin 81 104 12 95 16 101 23 112 23 103

This is a bet on just how bad that Patrick Corbin has been in his first two starts of the season and a bet on how well the Cardinals have hit lefties in the very small sample size that is this season. If I was going strictly by projections, this would probably be a tip for the Nationals. So this tip depends on how much faith you put in what we’ve seen thus far.

Corbin has a decent projection, but he gave up 6 runs in his first start against the Dodgers and then 10 runs (9 earned) in just two innings his second start against the Diamondbacks. He’s not that bad, nobody is really that bad, but he shouldn’t be the favorite here based on what we’ve seen. The Cardinals have a 135 wRC+ against lefties on the season.

Adam Wainwright is average to very slightly above average. He has a 4.02 ERA/4.56 FIP on the young season. The Nationals has just an 84 wRC+ against righties on the season.

Bet Cardinals +108

Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox Betting Tips:

Starter FIP- wRC+ Rank L14 Rank Bullpen Rank L14 Rank Park
TOR Hyun-Jin Ryu 77 108 6 91 19 101 23 102 14
BOS Eduardo Rodriguez 84 104 12 128 1 96 11 72 2 105

A good pitching match-up here, but these offenses are too good for a total of just eight runs. Ryu has been lucky early with a .260 BABIP and 84.5% left on base percentage. Those numbers won’t stay that high forever. While Rodriguez has a 3.60 ERA/3.59 FIP thus far, beating his projections by about a half a run.

Both of these teams have hit lefties well early and hit more homeruns than they’ve played games. Again, both of these pitchers have been good, but they are not the kind of guys I expect to completely shutdown an offense.

Two good offenses in a great hitting park. Let’s go.

Bet Red Sox/Blue Jays Over 8 Runs

Houston Astros at Colorado Rockies Betting Tips Betting Tips:

Starter FIP- wRC+ Rank L14 Rank Bullpen Rank L14 Rank Park
HOU Luis Garcia 105 110 5 115 4 98 15 117 26
COL Jon Gray 91 86 30 62 30 110 30 115 25 116

I like Jon Gray, but the Astros should absolutely win this game and I’m surprised to see that they aren’t a bigger favorite here. This is a bad match-up for anybody, but the Astros match-up well. He doesn’t strike many people out and they hardly strike out. He gives up homeruns, they hit homeruns. You know how this goes.

Luis Garcia is a slightly below average pitcher, but he has a good strikeout rate and the Rockies like to strikeout. Their offense has been abysmal early with just an 86 wRC+.

Neither bullpen gives me much hope, but I trust the Astros to take advantage of it much more than I do the Rockies.

Bet Astros -122

Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels Betting Tips:

Starter FIP- wRC+ Rank L14 Rank Bullpen Rank L14 Rank Park
TEX Jordan Lyles 106 91 28 86 23 101 23 118 27
LAA Shohei Ohtani 81 106 10 115 4 98 14 82 5 101

The Angels are a team we’ve been riding with a bit lately and there is no reason to step off that wagon here. They are against a very hittable Jordan Lyles here who has a 4.70 ERA/5.57 FIP on the season and a 2.35 HR/9 rate. He can be hit hard and the Angels are a team that can hit people hard.

Shohei Ohtani pitches for the Angels here and that is the big risk in this bet. He’s only made one start and walks were a serious problem, but he also has elite strikeout numbers. I’m willing to go with him here as the Rangers offense has been far below average and the hitting match-up is just too good to pass up.

Bet Angels -0.5 (-135)

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