April 26th, 2022 NBA & MLB Betting Tips

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Two MLB tips and one NBA tip for April 26th, 2022.

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Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat Betting Tips:

Minnesota Timberwolves at Memphis Grizzlies Betting Tips:

I thought I had a handle on this series and then the Wolves shot 50% from three in game four. That is just an insane stat, especially in the playoffs. They also made more free throws (31) than Memphis attempted (25).

To shoot that well at home and get that many more free throws, and only win by one point shows to me that I am on the right track with this one though. They aren’t going to shoot like that tonight in Memphis. They didn’t in their insane scoring game one and they aren’t going to here.
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Memphis has been the much better defensive team in this series and they are right there with Minnesota in Effective Field Goal percentage which is kind of crazy when you consider the way Minnesota’s offense went off in games one and four.

The Grizzlies are the better team here and Minnesota has impressed with two unicorn games, but when it comes to a game like this it should be all Memphis.

Pick: Grizzlies -6

New Orleans Pelicans at Phoenix Suns Betting Tips:

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Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals Betting Tips:

MIA – Sandy Alcantara 3.19 ERA/3.42 FIP (2021)
WSN – Josiah Gray 5.48 ERA/6.00 FIP (2021)

This is a bet on one pitcher being much better and one offense being much better so far.

The Nationals offense is projected to be better than this, but they only have a 82 wRC+ over the past two weeks. While the Marlins have been excellent thus far with a 126 wRC+.

Gray has been better thus far this season with a huge strikeout rate, but his walk and homerun rates are a red flag.
Pick: Marlins First 5 Innings Moneyline (-125)

Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox Betting Tips:

KCR – Daniel Lynch 5.69 ERA/4.82 FIP (2021)
CHW – Dallas Keuchel 5.28 ERA/5.23 FIP (2021)

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New York Mets at St. Louis Cardinals Betting Tips:

NYM – Chris Bassitt 3.15 ERA/3.34 FIP (2021)
STL – Jordan Hicks 3.99 ERA/3.96 FIP (Projected)

This line feels like a trap. Or like there is some bit of information that I don’t have.

Jordan Hicks is good, but he doesn’t go more than three innings. The Cardinals bullpen is merely average while the Mets have really hit the ball well early this season.

Chris Bassitt is a very good pitcher and the Cardinals are only average against righties. They have just a 92 wRC+ this season. The Mets bullpen is slightly below average, but Bassitt has gone six innings in each of his first three starts this season so they won’t be asked for much.

I don’t get what I’m missing. The Mets feel like a great pick at this price.

Pick: Mets -117

Houston Astros at Texas Rangers Betting Tips:

HOU – Jake Odorizzi 4.21 ERA/4.48 FIP (2021)
TEX – Taylor Hearn 4.66 ERA/4.82 FIP (2021)