April 30th, 2018 MLB Betting Tips

A 1-1 record yesterday.

The easy win was the Toronto Blue Jays over the Texas Rangers. I liked the Jays to hit Martin Perez hard in this one and that’s exactly what they did, tagging him for four runs in four innings pitched. J.A. Happ rolled with seven innings of two run ball and nine strikeouts and this was the easy win.

The loss was me targeting a rookie pitcher making his first start in Nick Kingham against the Cardinals. This guy was a middling prospect, expected to be a contributor but no star. He came out and put up one of the best lines for a rookie pitcher you’ll ever see. He retired the first 20 batters he faced and had a perfect game going into the seventh inning. I can’t even be mad about this loss, that’s just really impressive.

Today is the last day of April and I think this first month has been a pretty big success. Thanks to everyone who reads the site and especially those who comment their own tips down below. I love reading them and interacting with you all as it helps me sharpen my own ideas about each day’s games. I hope you keep it up. Now let’s finish the month with a solid winning day.

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Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals Betting Tips:

I was briefly excited by the season of Jameson Taillon, but he has been absolutely rocked in his last two starts. His last two have lasted a combined 5 1/3 innings and he’s allowed 12 runs on 14 hits while only striking out six. That’s not good. He faces an always dangerous Washington Nationals offense who has a .748 OPS against the righties on the year. It could get worse before it gets better for him.

He faces Tanner Roark who I just think of as a solid back of the rotation guy. He’s not going to kill you or mow everyone down with strikeouts, but he gets it done. He has a 3.77 ERA/4.73 FIP which is right in line with projections on him. I think he’ll do enough to grab the win here as the Pirates offense has a .725 OPS against righties.

Bet Nationals -111 at: [text-blocks id=”87″ slug=”bet-mlb”]

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins Betting Tips:

Jake Arrieta has looked great in his first few starts for the Phillies. He has a 1.82 ERA/3.22 FIP with a WHIP under 1. That’s pretty good. He gets the pleasure of facing the worst team against right handed pitchers in the Miami Marlins. They have just a 66 wRC+ (100 is average) and he should continue to roll here today. I like him a lot in this match-up.

He’ll go against Dan Straily who is making his 2018 debut. He’s made a few rehab starts and while I don’t put a ton of stock into those numbers (it’s more about getting back in a groove, less about results), they weren’t that impressive. For his career, he has a 4.25 ERA/4.72 FIP so he is who he is at this point. He is hittable and the Phillies offense is starting to hit better as of late. I love this match-up from both sides so I am laying the runs here.

Bet Phillies -1.5 at: [text-blocks id=”87″ slug=”bet-mlb”]

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers Betting Tips:

I really like the way the Rays have been hitting to start the season. They have a 106 wRC+ against righties on the season and today they face one of the easiest hitters to hit in baseball in Jordan Zimmermann. If you take away the start where he got hit in the face with a line drive and left the game in the first inning, he’s given up 3 or more in every start this year. He is my favorite gas can to pick on in this league and I love the Rays today.

Bet Rays -121 at: [text-blocks id=”87″ slug=”bet-mlb”]

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