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And then there were four.
We are now down to four teams remaining in the World Cup 2022, and just three meaningful games left to cover (I won’t be covering that useless third place game). It has been quite the journey.
We have Argentina vs Croatia taking place on Tuesday, with Morocco vs France on Wednesday. Argentina vs France is the expected final.
I’ll cover each game on separate days.
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Argentina vs Croatia Betting Tips:
So – three quick things before we get into this one.
1: I am concerned about the refereeing after that Argentina vs Netherlands game. There were some bad decisions, and the fact that Messi didn’t get booked for that handball is beyond ludicrous. Something to bear in mind.
2: I mentioned it before, but I made a 50/1 bet on Croatia to win the World Cup at half-time of their Morocco game. I hold them in high regard this year. I will not let that futures bet influence things, but feel it is fair to mention.
3: World Cup Semi Finals can be tough. They can be very low scoring, nervy games. Honestly, semi finals are rarely entertaining ha (Germany vs Brazil the exception!).
Following the group stage, Croatia have progressed to the semi-finals due to two penalty shootout wins, the last being over the favourites in the tournament, Brazil.
Croatia in that game played a low defensive line, and allowed Brazil to get in their half, before applying pressure. They did a good job of that as they wouldn’t let Brazil have too much time on the ball. Croatia forced Brazil out to the wings which was a good idea because limiting them to focusing on crosses more is a good idea. I expect we will see similar against Argentina.
Brazil did manage to rack up a 1.73 xG in 90 minutes against Croatia.
Modric didn’t have his best game for Croatia. He seemed to settle a bit as time went on and he sat a lot deeper in that game. Croatia focused a lot more on the wings in that game and I mean that is great – but their delivery was horrendous it felt.
Argentina went with a 3-5-2 against the Netherlands which would alternate to a back 4. Kind of similar to when England played France and you saw Walker was so far back most of the time.
All the talk of that first Argentina goal is of Messi, but i doesn’t even happen if not for Molina who was a big factor. I feel if we see them forced to use the flanks, it may work out well for them as their wingbacks stepped up big.
So now we’ve got this game. Argentina favourites to win in 90 at about 1.90, and highly favoured to qualify at 1.40.
Argentina have a couple of absences. They have went up compact defenses before such as Poland, and handled them well. I don’t expect Croatia to sit back as much as Poland though.
I hate to say it with my futures bet, but I am leaning towards Argentina qualifying here. I also think Argentina can get the job done in 90. They have been great at that, and were extremely unlucky not to do so against the Netherlands.
They just seem that much better in the final third, will be a lot more dangerous on the flanks, and I’m going with Argentina to win in 90 minutes at 1.91 odds.
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