August 10th, 2021 MLB Betting Tips

A huge post today with six MLB System picks for August 10th, 2021 .

All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.

Question: What are these stats?
Answer: Check out our MLB System Stats Guide to find out.

Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Luis Patino 106 116 105 89 84 1 71 4
BOS   106 99 90 104 7 88 24
Eduardo Rodriguez 81 95 123 82 93 8 78 5
TBR   106 112 112 103 9 117 4

The Rays have a 91 wRC+ against lefties on the season and are facing a tough one today in Rodriguez. He has been unlucky with a high BABIP and low left on base percentage, but the stuff is absolutely there. Eduardo has a 5.33 ERA/3.38 FIP and he’s just dying for some regression. The Rays offense could provide that for him here today.

Not a big sample size on Patino. He has great stuff, but he’s allowed three or more runs in four of his past five starts. The Red Sox offense is dangerous and has a 104 wRC+ on the season against righties.

Pick: Bet Red Sox First 5 Innings Moneyline

USA: Best Odds: -135 at Bovada -$750 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.71 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/10 11:30:43 AM EST but are subject to change.)

Oakland Athletics at Cleveland Indians Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Sean Manaea 79 84 114 64 99 12 70 3
CLE   105 101 88 89 23 93 21
Triston McKenzie 131 151 116 173 92 5 109 22
OAK   101 99 104 101 12 98 17

This is the system’s favorite F5 play of the day and it’s easy to see why.

Manaea has an excellent 3.26 ERA/3.24 FIP on the season. He faces a Cleveland offense that has just a 90 wRC+ against lefties and is just not that exciting outside of the one good player.

Triston McKenzie has a 5.89 ERA/5.54 FIP on the season. He’s been better in his home starts, but not enough to swing things away from Oakland.

Pick: Bet Oakland -0.5 First 5 Innings

USA: Best Odds: -115 at Bovada -$750 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.90 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/10 11:30:43 AM EST but are subject to change.)

Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Braves Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Sonny Gray 85 101 124 97 112 28 112 23
ATL   117 109 101 99 15 105 9
Drew Smyly 123 148 87 93 99 12 79 6
CIN   108 103 98 102 10 140 1

Five inning bets are essentially bets on starters. This match-up sees a huge gap between the quality of the two starters and that should be the difference.

Sonny Gray has a 3.67 ERA/4.15 FIP on the season with a great groundball rate. While the Braves are dangerous, Gray has actually been much stronger in his road starts this season.

Drew Smyly has been worse at home this year with a 5.29 FIP. He has one of the highest HR/9 rate of any pitcher going today and the Reds are a very good homerun hitting team.

Pick: Bet Reds First 5 Innings Moneyline

USA: Best Odds: -120 at Bovada -$750 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.86 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/10 11:30:43 AM EST but are subject to change.)

Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Dallas Keuchel 119 119 63 87 92 5 95 15
MIN   120 96 103 105 6 115 5
Griffin Jax 145 177 69 103 106 23 106 20
CHW   91 100 117 108 4 72 28

Griffin Jax is very hittable. He’s only made a few starts, but he has a 5.63 ERA/6.17 FIP with high walks and homeruns, and low strikeouts. Exactly the kind of pitcher we like to target. The White Sox offense is somehow getting better as the season goes on with Eloy Jimenez heating up and the return of Luis Robert.

Dallas Keuchel is kind of a hard pitcher to trust, but he does get the groundball and he had a decent start last time he faced the Twins. As long as he doesn’t implode, I think the White Sox can take this easily.

Pick: Bet White Sox First 5 Innings Moneyline

USA: Best Odds: -145 at Bovada -$750 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.74 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/10 11:30:43 AM EST but are subject to change.)

New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Nestor Cortes 65 38 116 101 87 2 84 8
KCR   88 94 84 89 23 85 25
Daniel Lynch 102 79 70 86 112 28 99 16
NYY   102 104 125 100 13 93 21

All we’re hoping for here is not a repeat from last night when it took eight innings for these offenses to wake up.

The Yankees are a great offense against lefties and Daniel Lynch is a low strikeout pitcher with a 6.00 ERA/4.24 FIP. He profiles as someone the Yankees should hit.

Plus, it will be warm with some nice hitting weather.

Pick: Bet Yankees First 5 Innings Moneyline

USA: Best Odds: -130 at Bovada -$750 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.80 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/10 11:30:43 AM EST but are subject to change.)

Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Kolby Allard 107 130 89 60 98 11 88 13
SEA   104 111 103 92 19 103 12
Logan Gilbert 78 74 120 75 88 3 114 25
TEX   92 103 91 84 28 66 30

Gilbert has been impressive this year with some big strikeout stuff and he hasn’t allowed a lot of homeruns. The Rangers don’t have a ton of power to begin with and this game will take place at the pitcher friendly T-Mobile Park. I think he can have a good game here.

Kolby Allard has a 5.07 ERA/4.47 FIP on the season and he’s pitching on the road. I think the Mariners can hit him early, but this will be close.

Pick: Bet Mariners -0.5 First 5 Innings

USA: Best Odds: -135 at Bovada -$750 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.76 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/10 11:30:43 AM EST but are subject to change.)

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