August 17th, 2020 MLB Betting Tips

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A nice 2-0 yesterday.

We took the Oakland Athletics yesterday as they have been feasting on the Giants pitching in this series and they did it again here. They sent Logan Webb packing after 4 1/3 with three runs allowed and then managed to score five runs each off the next two reliever. Not a good day for Wandy Peralta and Dereck Rodriguez. The As won 15-3 and this one was never in question after the fifth.

The Yankees got us the win in the nightcap with a 4-2 win. The Yankees scored all four of their runs in the first three innings and the pitching did the rest. J.A. Happ managed his best start of the season as he went 5.2 innings and allowed only one run. The Yankees have now won nine straight games against the Red Sox. Maybe it’s time for baseball to find a new “The Rivalry” because this one is getting pretty lopsided right now. Then again, it always has been. Yankees are 1222-1020 all-time against the Red Sox.

A nice week overall last week with an 8-4 record. Let’s keep it going into this one.

Best Odds for MLB:

Type of Bet / Prop: Where To Bet:
R + H + E BetOnline
MLB Grand Salami (Total Runs That Day) Bovada
World Series Futures
5 Inning Run Lines BetOnline
1st Inning Moneylines Bovada
Total Team Runs Over/Under Bovada

All tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted.

Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees Betting Tips:

Red Sox: Martin Perez 5.12 ERA/4.66 FIP(2019)
Yankees: Jordan Montgomery 5.17 ERA/5.11 FIP (2020)

The Yankees are going for ten straight wins against the Red Sox and it’s hard to see them not doing it against Martin Perez. Perez is a low strikeouts, high walks guy who can give up the longball with ease. The Yankees are the best offense in the league right now and I really think they are going to have their way with Perez.

Montgomery hasn’t looked great thus far, but the Yankees bullpen is very good so I am expecting a short leash on him here. He had Tommy John surgery in 2018 and has only made five major league appearances since then. He’s rounding back into form and I think he should eventually turn it around. The Red Sox are very “smash or crash” so this might be a good spot for him.

The system has this right on the line of a game worth laying runs for, but at -162 – I’m fine going moneyline.

Bet Yankees -162

New York Mets at Miami Marlins Betting Tips:

Mets: Robert Gsellman 4.66 ERA/4.13 FIP (2019)
Marlins: Jordan Yamamoto 4.46 ERA/4.51 FIP (2019)

The Marlins have been very good, but when I look at their stats I can’t quite figure out why. The bullpen has very bad numbers and the offense has been below average. The starting pitching has been good, but Yamamoto walks too many people for me to feel confident in him right now. The Mets offense is stacked and they have a 115 wRC+ on the season. They should be able to do some damage here to put themselves back in the NL East race.

Gsellman is a just fine pitcher. He’s being stretched out to start so don’t expect him to go too deep here, but he should be competent enough to get his team on the winning side.

Bet Mets -145

San Diego Padres at Texas Rangers Betting Tips:

Padres: Zach Davies 3.55 ERA/4.56 FIP (2019)
Rangers: Jordan Lyles 4.15 ERA/4.64 FIP (2019)

These two pitcher are pretty similar. Lyles has a higher K/9 rate, but he walks more and gives up more homeruns. Davies is better at getting groundballs. The bullpens have been equally bad so I’m calling that one a wash as well.

So the difference here is the offense. The Padres have a good one and the Rangers stink. That’s the tip, that’s the whole thing.

Bet Padres -141

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