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MLB tips for August 19th, 2022.
2-2-1 last night.
Not quite the results we were looking for, but I feel good about the way the System upgrades looked last night.
Some new series starting today and run scoring should be at a premium this weekend.
Seven tips tonight on Patreon, four are below.
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Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Tips:
CIN – Graham Ashcraft 3.96 ERA/4.15 FIP
PIT – Bryse Wilson 5.93 ERA/5.20 FIP
Weird to actually back the Reds here, but the pitching match-up is definitely in their favor. Ashcraft has a 3.13 ERA/4.38 FIP over his past five starts. Nothing too exciting, but the Pirates offense has struggled. A 74 wRC+ over the past month and over the last two weeks. An 83 wRC+ against righties. Runs will be hard to come by.
The Reds offense is better, but not by much. The key thing is the match-up as Wilson has been a gas can this season. Over his past four starts he has a 4.57 ERA/5.89 FIP with a huge HR/9 rate and a minuscule K/9 rate.
Reds First 5 Innings Moneyline (-120)
Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles Betting Tips:
BOS – Kutter Crawford 4.18 ERA/3.88 FIP
BAL – Jordan Lyles 4.48 ERA/4.40 FIP
Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees Betting Tips:
TOR – Kevin Gausman 3.16 ERA/2.08 FIP
NYY – Jameson Taillon 3.95 ERA/4.02 FIP
The Jays got some devil magic going last night as Berrios basically shutdown the Yankees. The struggles for the Yankees are really starting to show up as they have just a 78 wRC+ over the past two weeks. Last night they got one of the worst starters in baseball, today they get one of the best. He has a 4.13 ERA/2.84 FIP over his past five starts and the Yankees struggles could see him get that ERA to match his FIP.
Taillon has struggled over his past five starts with a 4.28 ERA/4.91 FIP. The Jays have a 113 wRC+ against righties and have hit better than the Yanks over the past two weeks.
Jays First 5 Innings Moneyline (-115)
Los Angeles Angels at Detroit Tigers Betting Tips:
LAA – Patrick Sandoval 3.42 ERA/3.27 FIP
DET – Matt Manning 3.24 ERA/3.76 FIP
Houston Astros at Atlanta Braves Betting Tips:
HOU – Lance McCullers Jr. 3.67 ERA/3.71 FIP (Projected)
ATL – Kyle Wright 3.14 ERA/3.68 FIP
Wright has struggled of late with a 4.01 ERA/5.11 FIP over his past four starts and the Astros offense is hot right now. They scored 21 runs yesterday and have a 121 wRC+ over the past month. They have a 114 wRC+ against righties on the season.
This is McCullers Jr.’s second start so there is some risk there, but he looked great in his first time out. The Braves offense has just a 106 wRC+ against righties.
Astros First 5 Innings (+105)
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San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies Betting Tips:
SFG – Alex Wood 4.18 ERA/3.34 FIP
COL – Jose Urena 5.02 ERA/5.59 FIP
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St. Louis Cardinals at Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Tips:
STL – Miles Mikolas 3.44 ERA/3.72 FIP
ARI – Tommy Henry 4.15 ERA/5.14 FIP
The Cardinals absolutely crush lefties with a 128 wRC+ against them. Henry has only a 4.15 ERA/5.14 FIP in his first three starts this year with low strikeouts and high walks. STL has a 142 wRC+ over the past two weeks. I don’t see this going well for him.
Mikolas is nothing special, about perfectly average, but the Diamondbacks are below average with a 93 wRC+ against righties this season.
Cardinals -0.5 First 5 Innings (-125)
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