August 20th, 2021 MLB Betting Tips

Three MLB System picks for August 20th, 2021.

All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.

Question: What are these stats?
Answer: Check out our MLB System Stats Guide to find out.

Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Mitch Keller 114 97 86 129 101 15 132 26
STL   92 98 88 91 22 117 7
Miles Mikolas 76 0 75 66 102 18 61 2
PIT   75 99 90 82 28 54 30

Miles Mikolas is making just his second start of the season, but his track record is strong and he draws a great match-up here. The Pirates have just an 83 wRC+ against right handed pitching on the season. Mikolas has a career 3.81 ERA/3.95 FIP.

Mitch Keller has a 6.86 ERA/4.77 FIP on the season. He has really struggled with walks and has been much worse on the road this season. The Cardinals offense isn’t great with just an 88 wRC+ over the past two weeks, but they have been on fire over the last two weeks with a 117 wRC+.

Pick: Bet Cardinals -0.5 First 5 Innings

USA: Best Odds: -135 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.74 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/20 12:29:04 PM EST but are subject to change.)

New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Carlos Carrasco 184 329 93 61 100 14 113 19
LAD   106 102 109 109 3 120 5
Walker Buehler 75 67 115 76 91 6 47 1
NYM   86 105 96 93 17 75 26

Walker Buehler is the top pitcher on the board today with a 2.09 ERA/3.13 FIP. He has a big strikeout rate and draws a great match-up against the Mets here. The bats have been ice cold for the Mets over the past two weeks with just a 75 wRC+. For the season, they have just a 90 wRC+ against righties.

Carlos Carrasco makes the start here for the Mets. A tiny sample size on him and I don’t see him going deep into this one. The Mets bullpen will take a heavy load here and they have a 113 FIP- over the past two weeks.

Going with the full game runline here because of the combination of Buehler and the Dodger bullpen. They have a 47 FIP- over the past two weeks.

Pick: Bet Dodgers -1.5

USA: Best Odds: -122 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.81 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/20 12:29:04 PM EST but are subject to change.)

Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Matt Moore 127 159 86 106 110 28 120 23
SDP   97 98 108 101 11 99 17
Blake Snell 104 103 121 154 90 4 88 8
PHI   97 106 100 94 16 67 28

Matt Moore stinks. He’s the worst pitcher on my board today with a 6.07 ERA/5.52 FIP. The Padres offense has talent and they should be able to take full advantage of him today.

Blake Snell has been solid this year, but he has been much better in his home starts with a 2.83 FIP.

Pick: Bet Padres -0.5 First 5 Innings

USA: Best Odds: -140 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.71 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/20 12:29:04 PM EST but are subject to change.)

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