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A 1-2 record last night.
A bit unlucky with the Reds once again against the Brewers. Luis Castillo was great with only two earned runs allowed through six innings, but the problem is that there was also an unearned run on his slate. That gave the Brewers a 3-2 lead and that was enough to get the win. The Devin Williams-Josh Hader combo in the 8th and 9th is just devastating and makes this a tough team to bet on.
The Jays were cruising 6-3 and then their bullpen happened. Chase Anderson left and then the Red Sox scored six runs in the sixth. The Jays bullpen has been excellent thus far this season so that blow up was completely unexpected. These types of things happen, but it seems like they’ve been happening to our picks a lot lately. It’s frustrating, but it will even out.
We laid the runs with the Athletics and that one came in easily. Oakland won this one 10-3 which is especially impressive when you see the box score and their 3-4-5 hitters all went hitless. The power of a deep lineup.
A full slate today and there is plenty that the system likes.
Best Odds for MLB:
|Type of Bet / Prop:||Where To Bet:|
|R + H + E||BetOnline|
|MLB Grand Salami (Total Runs That Day)||Bovada|
|World Series Futures||SportsBetting.ag|
|5 Inning Run Lines||BetOnline|
|1st Inning Moneylines||Bovada|
|Total Team Runs Over/Under||Bovada|
All tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted.
Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Indians Betting Tips:
Twins: Jose Berrios 4.75 ERA/4.18 FIP
Indians: Mike Clevinger 3.24 ERA/6.28 FIP
Berrios has had a couple rough starts, but his last time out was his best start of the season and I expect more good things here today. The Indians offense has just an 88 wRC+ against right handed pitchers on the season and they’ve continued to be cold of late with an 80 wRC+ over the past two weeks.
Mike Clevinger is making his return after a COVID-19 related demotion. He’s been lucky early and this Twins offense can be pretty dangerous.
The Indians remind me of the Brewers a bit as their bullpen has really been shutdown thus far. We’re going to bust out the 5-inning line here as I think Berrios can dominate early and the Twins will hit Clevinger.
Miami Marlins at New York Mets Betting Tips:
Marlins: Elieser Hernandez 2.29 ERA/3.36 FIP
Mets: Jacob deGrom 1.93 ERA/2.12 FIP
Hernandez has been great to start the season, but he’s also relied on a .209 BABIP and a 93.8% left on base percentage. Those numbers are unsustainable and they will come around. He’s also been worse on the road, but that is an admittedly tiny sample. The Mets offense is deep and dangerous while the wind will be blowing out to right here. This could be a tough one for him and I don’t have any faith in the Marlins bullpen.
Jacob deGrom needs no introduction. He’s great, one of the best pitchers in the game and the Marlins offense strikes out about 24.8% of the time. deGrom is going to do a lot to get his team to the win. I’m laying the runs.
Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers Betting Tips:
Reds: Sonny Gray 2.21 ERA/2.66 FIP
Brewers: Adrian Houser 3.72 ERA/4.74 FIP
I really debated doing this to myself again, but I believe the last two games could’ve easily gone our way and that this one might. Houser isn’t known for going deep and you have to think that Devin Williams and Josh Hader won’t be available tonight. They’ve both pitched on back-to-back nights which neither have done all season. Three straight nights feels like an unnecessary risk.
Sonny Gray is good. The Brewers offense hasn’t shown me anything that makes me think the numbers are wrong about them.
I was going to go F5 here, but the possible lack of Hader/Williams pushed me to the full game.
Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Tips:
Rockies: Jon Gray 6.23 ERA/4.80 FIP
Diamondbacks: Robbie Ray 8.33 ERA/7.79 FIP
I don’t get this line. Robbie Ray has been very bad. He has no control as he’s walked 11 over his past two starts and he’s allowed multiple homeruns in half of his starts this season. The Rockies crushed him at home and now they should probably crush him on the road as well. The Diamondbacks bullpen has a 4.99 ERA/5.02 FIP on the year.
Gray was hit very hard by this Diamondbacks team at Coors Field, but this one isn’t in Coors Field. His strikeouts have been done this year which does worry me a bit and the Diamondbacks don’t strike out much, but he’s due for some good luck here. He has a 53.5% left on base percentage on the season which is very low.
While Gray gives me some pause, I love the Rockies offense to get it done here.