August 26th, 2021 MLB Betting Tips

Three MLB System tips for August 26th, 2021.

All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.

Question: What are these stats?
Answer: Check out our MLB System Stats Guide to find out.

San Francisco Giants at New York Mets Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Alex Wood 90 81 108 81 93 7 67 1
NYM   85 106 93 92 17 78 27
Carlos Carrasco 138 229 101 59 100 13 104 15
SFG   113 108 104 107 5 114 6

This is a similar deal as yesterday with these two teams. Mainly, I just don’t trust the Mets offense to keep up.

Alex Wood has a 4.11 ERA/3.63 FIP on the season so he has been a bit unlucky. He does a good job of keeping walks and homeruns down while having good strikeout numbers. The Mets offense only has a 94 wRC+ against lefties on the year and they are weak when it comes to power. A good match-up for Wood.

Carlos Carrasco has a small sample, but there hasn’t been much to get excited about. The Giants offense is very good.

Pick: Bet Giants Moneyline

USA: Best Odds: -117 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.85 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/26 11:33:40 AM EST but are subject to change.)

Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Patrick Corbin 126 163 79 80 108 26 170 30
MIA   83 116 83 88 25 90 20
Elieser Hernandez 138 216 112 47 92 5 110 18
WSN   94 97 94 100 12 109 10

Are these offenses great? No. Are these pitchers dominant? No. Are these bullpens any good? No.

I think the last two answers will be more important than the first one and we’ll hit the over here.

Corbin has a really rough HR/9 rate at 1.96. Elieser Hernandez is somehow even worse with a 2.60 HR/9 rate (in a much smaller sample). The Nationals bullpen has been bad all season and is really struggling of late with a 170 FIP- over the past two weeks.

Pick: Bet Nationals/Marlins Over 7.5

USA: Best Odds: -105 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.95 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/26 11:33:40 AM EST but are subject to change.)

Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Max Scherzer 79 113 146 69 91 4 77 2
SDP   97 97 107 100 12 76 28
Yu Darvish 89 119 127 64 93 7 117 23
LAD   107 102 108 108 4 104 14

Max Scherzer makes the start here and that’s enough for me. No offense meant to Darvish, but Max is just that good. He has a 2.65 ERA/3.37 FIP on the season with a 12.11 K/9 rate. The Padres offense is strong, but not enough where I fear them here. The Dodgers bullpen has been pitching excellently of late as well.

Darvish is good as well with a 3.70 ERA/3.71 FIP, but he draws a much tougher match-up. The Dodgers have a 112 wRC+ against righties on the season. While the Padres bullpen has struggled of late.

Pick: Bet Dodgers Moneyline

USA: Best Odds: -127 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.78 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/08/26 11:33:40 AM EST but are subject to change.)

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