August 27th, 2020 MLB Betting Tips

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A 1-2 record last night.

The Rockies were an underdog last night at +118 and they came through with an 8-7 win. The Rockies scored 5 in the eighth to take an 8-1 lead. The bullpen very nearly blew this one with a six runs allowed in the last two innings, but they managed to hang on for the 8-7 win. The Rockies really missed some opportunities with Robbie Ray walking six batters in four innings. A ton left on base in that time, but it all worked out in the end.

I really don’t like to come on here and make excuses for any losses. This is baseball, things happen. You take the good with the bad. Last night’s Mets game really got to me though. The Mets got an absolute gem from Jacob deGrom and he left the game after seven innings with a 4-1 lead. The Mets win expectancy at this point was 93.7%. They brought in Justin Wilson, a good reliever, who faced four batters and gave up three hits. They all scored, tie game. The Mets ended up scoring one in the 8th to win, but not enough to cover the spread. Just an extremely frustrating game.

We also took a one-run loss in the five inning line with the Twins. Minnesota had a two-run lead early, but a three-run homerun in the third ended this one. Another one run loss.

A very weird schedule today as not many teams in action, but a lot of short double headers.

Best Odds for MLB:

Type of Bet / Prop: Where To Bet:
R + H + E BetOnline
MLB Grand Salami (Total Runs That Day) Bovada
World Series Futures
5 Inning Run Lines BetOnline
1st Inning Moneylines Bovada
Total Team Runs Over/Under Bovada

All tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted.

Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays Betting Tips:

Orioles: John Means 10.13 ERA/7.66 FIP
Rays: Ryan Yarbrough 4.45 ERA/5.20 FIP

One look at the FIPs of these starters and you can see why I’m doing the over here. They have both struggled and both of these offenses can hit the ball. Each pitcher is a lefty and both of these offense crush them. The Rays have a 115 wRC+ on the season against lefties and the Orioles have a 131 wRC+.

This should be a high scoring game and I like that is under nine runs.

Bet Orioles/Rays Over 8.5

Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers Betting Tips:

Athletics: Chris Bassitt 2.97 ERA/3.64 FIP
Rangers: Jordan Lyles 9.25 ERA/6.24 FIP

Jordan Lyles has been getting absolutely destroyed of late. He’s given up at least four runs in four of his past six starts and has allowed 14 runs over his last two starts. I’ll believe it when I see it with this guy, but right now he is a target.

Bassitt is a solid pitcher and the Rangers is pretty weak right now as they have a 59 wRC+ against right handed starters.

Bet Athletics -1.5 (-129)

Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers Betting Tips:

Twins: Randy Dobnak 1.78 ERA/4.08 FIP
Tigers: Matthew Boyd 8.48 ERA/5.85 FIP

Boyd has been pretty unlucky to start the season, but the homeruns are an actual problem. The Twins offense hasn’t quite been what we thought it would be this year, but it’s still dangerous and Nelson Cruz can make him pay. The Tigers bullpen stinks and I feel pretty good about Minnesota here.

Dobnak has been great, but he’s also been very lucky. That said, the groundball rate is real. The Tigers are in upper echelon of groundball hitting teams with a 44.5% rate. The Tigers hurt you with the long ball and if he can keep it on the ground, the Twins can have success.

Bet Twins -155

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