August 3rd, 2020 MLB Betting Tips

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A 1-1 record last night.

We needed a bit of luck to save the day yesterday and we got it in the form of a big Astros comeback. Ohtani only made it 1.2 innings of this one so that part went according to plan, but then the Angels exploded for four runs in the third. The Astros were then playing come from behind ball, but they managed as they scored in the 7th and 9th to force extras and winning it in the 11th.

We were way off the mark on the Cubs/Pirates over with a 2-1 final score that took 11 innings. While it wasn’t the whole story – it did not help for Josh Bell and Kris Bryant, the two best hitters for each team, not being in the lineup.

Today’s schedule features the return of the Phillies and the Brewers. The Brewers have only been off since Thursday while the Phillies play their first game since July 26th. For their trouble, they get Gerrit Cole and the Yankees. Aaron Judge is one to watch against Jake Arrieta as he goes for homeruns in six straight games.

We’ll be staying away from those two games today, but we do have two tips for tonight’s games. Let’s get into it.

Best Odds for MLB:

Type of Bet / Prop: Where To Bet:
R + H + E BetOnline
MLB Grand Salami (Total Runs That Day) Bovada
World Series Futures
5 Inning Run Lines BetOnline
1st Inning Moneylines Bovada
Total Team Runs Over/Under Bovada

All tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted.

Cleveland Indians at Cincinnati Reds Betting Tips:

Indians: Zach Plesac 3.81 ERA/4.94 FIP (2019)
Reds: Sonny Gray 2.87 ERA/3.42 FIP (2019)

Sonny Gray had an awesome season last year and he faces an offense that hasn’t done much of anything thus far this season. The Indians have a wOBA of .259 which currently ranks 28th in all of MLB and are one of only ten teams with a wOBA under .300. For comparison, the Reds have a wOBA of .341. Gray has great strikeout stuff and he should have a good game here.

Plesac was outstanding in his first start of the year against the White Sox, but I hold my reservations about him. The projections all show him as a guy who will give up a homerun and the Reds have some guys who like to hit homeruns. This is not going to be an easy one for him.

The Reds offense is much better and Gray looks to be the better pitcher on the mound. Easy pick here.

Bet Reds -134

Pittsburgh Pirates at Minnesota Twins Betting Tips:

Pirates: Derek Holland 6.08 ERA/6.10 FIP
Twins: Lewis Thorpe 6.18 ERA/3.47 FIP (2019)

The Twins have had a slower than expected start at the plate as they’ve run into some real tough pitching match-ups. They get a major reprieve today in the form of Derek Holland and I think they are going to explode for some big runs here. The Twins offense is pretty similar to last year’s squad (plus Josh Donaldson) and last year’s team lead the MLB in OPS against left handed pitchers. Holland is left handed. Holland isn’t very good. I think you can see where I am going with this.

The Pirates are the worst offense team in the league right now with a .242 wOBA. Lewis Thorpe probably isn’t going to go very deep into this game, but he and the bullpen won’t need to do much to get this win. Just keep it under 4 and they should be good.

Going to lay the runs here because there might not be a bigger offense gap on the board today.

Bet Twins -1.5 (-122)

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