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Boy it’s good to be writing and tipping football again.
I mentioned it the other week in the golf tips but I just kind of checked out after Week 14. Week 15 was where COVID wreaked havoc on the NFL. That also co-incided with a family trip for the weekend, so I decided to just skip that week.
When back – I dunno, I just didn’t have the passion for it or to analyze everything. I still made a few bets but I decided at that point to start analyzing and looking forward instead, preparing for the playoffs.
Now they are finally here!
It’s quite the weekend. We’ve got two games on Saturday, three Sunday and then a Monday nighter and I aim to cover all of it.
So with that let’s get onto the two Saturday games:
Bengals vs Raiders Betting Tips:
Bengals finished the season with a 10-7 record, top of the AFC North. Raiders also a 10-7, 2nd in the AFC West.
Bengals come into this as 5.5 point favourites with the over/under set at 48.5. These two played in November, and the Bengals ran out 32-13 winners with a big 4th quarter.
Bengals had a couple of solid results to finish the season with the big 41-21 win over the Ravens, and the victory against the Chiefs.
Carr is not someone you can really trust in terms of putting up a lot of points. 17 stars, hasn’t thrown 3 or more touchdowns. Burrow comes in on absolute fire.
I do like the theory that the team you want to bet is the team that are already playing playoff football – which is the Raiders. But it’s hard to look past the Bengals at home with the way Ja-Marr Chase is performing.
Raiders though when you look at their pass rush win and pressure rates – if they can bring that against Burrow, it could be a long day.
Then you’ve got Darren Waller back, which could be a big change for Carr. Bengals have given up six highest points against TE’s so that’s always something to consider.
I am going to go with Raiders +5.5. After last week, just looking at everything in the press this week I think they have the right attitude. Maxx Crosby is a beast and helping to lead this team and I think has a big game taking down Burrow here.
On paper, the Bengals offense looks too much for the Raiders and the big question is if the Raiders can go toe to toe with them. There’s a lot of expectations on the Bengals and if the Raiders put pressure on them nice and early, it could be game changing.
Bills vs Patriots Betting Tips:
We’ve seen two games between the two this season. That bizarre Monday nighter where the Patriots ran the ball almost every play for a 14-10 victory, then the Bills 33-21 win over the Pats on Boxing Day. 3rd downs were the story there.
Bills are 4 point favourites here. It’s impressive to even see the Pats here. They were still looking to be in rebuild mode and almost ended up winning the AFC East.
As a Pats fan I am stunned at how well we have did this season. Pats on the road are 6-2 as well which is nuts.
I know a lot of people say don’t bet against Belichick in the playoffs – but that’s what I am going to do here. This Bills team is just so much better quality wise than the Patriots. This is a big step up for Mac Jones and I just can’t see it. Diggs will have a heck of a day with J.C. Jackson I expect but I think we’ll see Gabriel Davis have a big game.
I just can’t see the Pats offense able to match the Bills offense at all. That first game was an anomaly. However now we have interesting weather for this one with freezing cold weather. Allen when you look at his stats struggles in the cold weather while Mac has never played one I believe that has been below freezing temperature.
At the end of the day, I rate the Bills a lot higher and am taking Bills -4. They just outclass the Pats and should dominate like they did on Boxing Day.
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