Bet MLB System 2021 Season Preview: Win Totals, World Series, Pennant Odds

The Bet MLB System is coming back to!

We will have picks for Opening Day and on most days throughout the season.

The Bet MLB System is something that I developed using a variety of stats to predict scores. Some of statistics that I use include home/road splits for pictures, team batting versus left/right handed pitchers, last ten games, and park factors.

In 2019, the Bet MLB System finished with a record of 101-63-3 for +22 units. Last year for the shortened season, we finished with a record of 117-92 for +9.51 units.

As we’ve done in the past, we are doing a season preview in the form of Win Totals betting odds. For this exercise, I used a combination of projections from FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus, and Clay Davenport‘s projections. We’re looking for team totals to bet that are at least +2 or -2 off of the projections. Last season, we went 5-3 on Win Totals using this method.

Best Odds for MLB:

Type of Bet / Prop: Where To Bet:
R + H + E BetOnline
MLB Grand Salami (Total Runs That Day) Bodog
World Series Futures
5 Inning Run Lines BetOnline
1st Inning Moneylines Bodog
Total Team Runs Over/Under Bodog

Arizona Diamondbacks

Projection: 76 Wins
Win Total:75.5 Wins
World Series Odds:+12500
Pennant Odds:+6600

This would’ve been an under pick if I had only used FanGraphs as they are the most down on them at 73 wins. I tend to agree with them, but I’ll stick away from this one.

We made good money last year by betting against Madison Bumgarner pretty much whenever he started and I am thinking we’ll do that again this year. The projection systems are very kind to him though and I simply don’t see it.

Atlanta Braves

Projection: 86.6 Wins
Win Total:91.5 Wins
World Series Odds:+1000
Pennant Odds:+600

The Braves are a tough one as I can see the team being very good, but 91.5 wins seems very aggressive. The projection systems top at out 89 and that seems fair to me. Both the offense and the pitching rank as very good but not elite and under 92 wins feels right to me.

Bet Braves Under 91.5 Wins

Baltimore Orioles

Projection: 66 Wins
Win Total:63.5 Wins
World Series Odds:+10000
Pennant Odds:+5000

I believe in the Orioles!

Not to be good or anything, but they are going to go over this total. FanGraphs and BP have them at 67+ wins and I think they will get there. The offense has some good young hitters in Santander, Mountcasle, Mancini, and Hays who should help carry them over here.

Bet Orioles Over 63.5 Wins

Boston Red Sox

Projection: 81.8 Wins
Win Total:80.5 Wins
World Series Odds:+5000
Pennant Odds:+2500

FanGraphs has this team going over and I couldn’t disagree more. This is just such a lame team. The pitching has nothing to get excited about with Chris Sale starting the year on the disabled list and the offense is just JD Martinez and a bunch of guys.

This team will go as far as Bobby Dalbec and Rafael Devers takes them, and they both strikeout too much to go far.

Chicago Cubs

Projection: 80 Wins
Win Total:78.5 Wins
World Series Odds:+5000
Pennant Odds:+2800

I’m glad that the Cubs fell below the threshold because I did not want to bet on them. One of the richest teams in all of baseball and they act like they’re one of the poorest.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see more stars on the move before this season is done.

Chicago White Sox

Projection: 82.8 Wins
Win Total:90.5 Wins
World Series Odds:+1000
Pennant Odds:+425

The loss of Eloy Jimenez hurts this team, but this is still pretty harsh for one of last year’s most exciting teams. The offense could potentially be very good once again and the pitching is projected to be top-5 in the league. So, what gives?

There are just a lot of question marks on offense. No Jimenez for five-to-six months, aging players in Jose Abreu and Adam Eaton, nothing at DH, and boom-or-bust young players. I’m hoping for the best with this team because the were a lot of fun last year, but 90 wins seems high.

Bet White Sox Under 90.5 Wins

Cincinnati Reds

Projection: 79 Wins
Win Total:81.5 Wins
World Series Odds:+4000
Pennant Odds:+2200

The pitching looks decent, the offense looks awful.

I really thought this team was going to take the Central last year, but they disappointed and now their team looks like a lesser version of that one.

Cleveland Indians

Projection: 82.4 Wins
Win Total:81.5 Wins
World Series Odds:+5000
Pennant Odds:+2500

Similar to their Ohio brethren, the Indians look like a lesser version of last year’s team. They had exactly two good hitters last year and they traded one of them away.

To compete they’ll need breakout years from half their lineup if they want to compete. I just don’t see that happening here.

Colorado Rockies

Projection: 64.4 Wins
Win Total:62.5 Wins
World Series Odds:+20000
Pennant Odds:+10000

The projection just short of +2 and I am thankful for that. This team ranks in the bottom-five at FanGraphs in batter WAR and pitcher WAR. Despite playing in a homer-happy ballpark, they have almost no power in their lineup and that will cost them heavily in today’s environment.

Detroit Tigers

Projection: 68.4 Wins
Win Total:67.5 Wins
World Series Odds:+15000
Pennant Odds:+6600

A lot of strong pitching in the minor leagues that could make their debut this year. A second half surge is possible, but they would need a lot to go right. Then again, if things do go right then they are probably going to trade the people who things go right for.

Maybe next year on the Tigers.

Houston Astros

Projection: 91.2 Wins
Win Total:87.5 Wins
World Series Odds:+2500
Pennant Odds:+900

Everyone is ready to count out the Astros, but they just aren’t ready to be counted out yet. The loss of George Springer hurts, but Kyle Tucker is more than ready to take his place and the offense is still loaded.

The pitching could be in trouble with some injuries, but name a team for whom that doesn’t apply. I think they’ll be dangerous again and the +900 to win the AL is not a bad play.

Bet Astros Over 87.5 Wins

Kansas City Royals

Projection: 74 Wins
Win Total:74.5 Wins
World Series Odds:+12500
Pennant Odds:+6600

The Royals were probably the most active team this offseason and their reward is… a 74-win projection.

Not enough pitching here to get excited about this team.

Los Angeles Angels

Projection: 84 Wins
Win Total:83.5 Wins
World Series Odds:+5000
Pennant Odds:+2200

One of these year’s, the Angels are going to be awesome.

This is not that year.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Projection: 101.4 Wins
Win Total:103.5 Wins
World Series Odds:+300
Pennant Odds:+180

The World Series champions are back and looking as dangerous as ever.

I am making an exception to the rule here and I am not going to bet the under on this one despite it being -2.1. Why? This is the Dodgers! They have more depth, more money, and more superstars than any other team.

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Miami Marlins

Projection: 71 Wins
Win Total:71.5 Wins
World Series Odds:+8000
Pennant Odds:+5000

The pitching might be decent here and this team surprised a lot of people last year. I’m not making a bet, but I’d definitely be leaning over on this one.

Milwaukee Brewers

Projection: 84.8 Wins
Win Total:83.5 Wins
World Series Odds:+4000
Pennant Odds:+2200

It’s a sad state of affairs in the NL Central with this projection being the best in the division.

The Brewers have great pitching and that should carry them a long way, but the offense is Christian Yelich and not much else. My least favorite kind of team to watch/bet on.

Minnesota Twins

Projection: 88.8 Wins
Win Total:88.5 Wins
World Series Odds:+2000
Pennant Odds:+900

It’s very easy to envision the Twins being great. There are just too many health issues to bet on them doing much more than this. A full season from Josh Donaldson and Byron Buxton could make all the difference here.

New York Mets

Projection: 91.6 Wins
Win Total:90.5 Wins
World Series Odds:+1200
Pennant Odds:+650

This is one where I am tempted to take the over because you have to think this team isn’t done. They have a new billionaire owner and if they are in the thick of things, you know that the pocketbook will be open to add to the team.

The Mets are honestly stacked and I think you’ll be seeing them in our tips a lot this season.

New York Yankees

Projection: 97.6 Wins
Win Total:95.5 Wins
World Series Odds:+550
Pennant Odds:+260

We’ve really been robbed over the past few seasons as Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge never seemed to be healthy at the same time. If they can do that over a prolonged stretch, I think we could see some recording setting homerun numbers from this team. They hit 306 in 2019, when both had injuries, which is the second best total of all-time.

Year two of Gerrit Cole should be something to watch and the rotation as a whole looks much improved. I think the Yankees are winning 100 games this year.

Bet Yankees Over 95.5 Wins

Oakland Athletics

Projection: 82.4 Wins
Win Total:86.5 Wins
World Series Odds:+2800
Pennant Odds:+1000

This is really a classic Athletics team: everything is pretty much solid with nothing to get excited about outside of a couple hitters and it might go wrong.

I have major questions about the bullpen and that leads me to taking this under. That said, this is 100% the pick that I will look back on and laugh when Oakland wins the Wild Card. That’s just how A’s seasons go.

Bet Athletics Under 86.5 Wins

Philadelphia Phillies

Projection: 82.2 Wins
Win Total:81.5 Wins
World Series Odds:+4000
Pennant Odds:+2200

This team had the most embarrassing bullpen a year ago and I don’t see it going much better here. Same for the rotation which falls off a cliff after the first few starters.

It always seems like this team should be better.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Projection: 63.2 Wins
Win Total:59.5 Wins
World Series Odds:+25000
Pennant Odds:+12500

Will the Pirates be good? Absolutely not. Is 59.5 wins too low? Probably.

That’s all I got here. I like Ke’Bryan Hayes a lot and the rotation looks solid.

Bet Pirates Over 59.5 Wins

San Diego Padres

Projection: 96.2 Wins
Win Total:95.5 Wins
World Series Odds:+900
Pennant Odds:+500

The Padres are going to be awesome this year, but playing in a division with the Dodgers is tough business. This win total looks right on.

I would, however, recommend throwing a few bucks at the Padres World Series odds at +900. They have some dominant starters and what looks to be a very good bullpen to go with an outstanding offense.

San Francisco Giants

Projection: 75.6 Wins
Win Total:75.5 Wins
World Series Odds:+10000
Pennant Odds:+5000

The Giants were fun last year in that shortened season kind of way. It’s hard to imagine them sustaining that over a full year, especially with one of the older lineups out there.

Move along, not much to see here.

Seattle Mariners

Projection: 73 Wins
Win Total:72.5 Wins
World Series Odds:+10000
Pennant Odds:+5000

I think this team could potentially be a lot better than this, but they would need to get something out of the bullpen in order for that to happen. Last year’s team had a 5.92 ERA/5.81 FIP from the bullpen and it’s hard to see it getting much better with the usual waiver wire pickup moves.

This team does look fun though with Kyle Lewis, Mitch Haniger coming back from injury, Ty France’s big bat, James Paxton returning, and the potential debut of Jarred Kelenic. Too bad the bullpen is going to ruin it all.

St. Louis Cardinals

Projection: 79.6 Wins
Win Total:86.5 Wins
World Series Odds:+2500
Pennant Odds:+1400

This is the biggest difference between a projection and a win total on this list. My opinion is that the projections are a lot closer than the total.

The offense is aggressively okay with all three outfield spots being huge question marks to me. The addition of Nolan Arenado will help a lot, but he might not be enough to keep them afloat on that end. The starters are fine and the bullpen isn’t strong enough to make the whole thing work.

Bet Cardinals Under 86.5 Wins

Tampa Bay Rays

Projection: 86 Wins
Win Total:85.5 Wins
World Series Odds:+2800
Pennant Odds:+1000

Last year’s AL Pennant winner returns with a weaker rotation and the same “everyone is about the same” lineup.

86 wins feels right.

Texas Rangers

Projection: 69.8 Wins
Win Total:67.5 Wins
World Series Odds:+15000
Pennant Odds:+7500

I’m a bigger believer in this offense than the projections seem to be. A big part of that is David Dahl who hit .302/.353/.524 in over 400 at-bats in 2019 before hitting .183/.222/.247 in 99 at-bats last year. I believe that 2019 guy is a lot closer to who he’ll be this year than the guy from the COVID year. A big year from him can flip this offense into something somewhat respectable.

The rotation is pretty decent as well.

Bet Rangers Over 67.5 Wins

Toronto Blue Jays

Projection: 86.4 Wins
Win Total:87.5 Wins
World Series Odds:+2500
Pennant Odds:+900

I don’t care how many games the Blue Jays win as long as Vlad Guerrero Jr. starts doing some cool stuff.

Washington Nationals

Projection: 83.8 Wins
Win Total:84.5 Wins
World Series Odds:+3300
Pennant Odds:+1800

This feels low for a team with Juan Soto, Trea Turner, Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and Patrick Corbin; but then you look at the rest of the team and you get it.

A real stars and scrubs approach. Josh Bell and Kyle Schwarber will decide this season for the Nats.

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