July 13th, 2018 MLB Betting Tips

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A 1-2 record last night.

We just had a couple of offenses that didn’t really show up for us. The Diamondbacks only managed only run at Coors Field while the Rays didn’t do much against the Twins. Blake Snell was pulled early in that one and it just wasn’t meant to be.

I felt pretty good about the Pirates winning over the Brewers. I usually shy away from taking teams of lesser talent levels, but this one just worked out great. A nice catch by the system.

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Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets Betting Tips:

Typically with totals, the system and the betting lines are pretty close. Usually within a run or half run of the total that is posted by sportsbooks. Today, the totals all seem really high compared to the system. I am going to be skipping most of these, just to see if it’s a blip or something like that, but I really like the under on this one.

Noah Syndergaard is one of my favorite pitchers in the game as when he’s on, he can dominate any offense. He’s been cleared to play and I like him a lot here. The Nationals have been mostly disappointing as an offense this year with a 95 wRC+ and the Mets ballpark does suppress offense.

The Mets offense is equally disappointing with a .702 OPS against righties this year. Tanner Roark is solid, but unspectacular with a 4.76 ERA/4.58 FIP. This total just seems way too high and I’ll be taking the under. I’ll also be taking the Mets to win here.

Bet Mets -121

Bet Nationals/Mets Under 8.5 Runs at: [text-blocks id=”87″ slug=”bet-mlb”]

New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Indians Betting Tips:

Shane Bieber had been pitching over his head a bit before facing Oakland who tagged him for four runs last time out. Today, he gets the Yankees who hit righties better than anyone. That should work out well.

He goes against Domingo German who has been giving up an insane amount of homeruns this year. He has a 5.06 ERA/4.47 FIP/3.76 xFIP on the year. That is some bad luck, but the homeruns have been real. The Indians offense has power and they always seem to put up runs at home. Take the over.

Bet Yankees/Indians over 9 Runs at: [text-blocks id=”87″ slug=”bet-mlb”]

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Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox Betting Tips:

The other under I really like today is this one. The total is so high, but the offensive quality is just not there.

I’ve enjoyed going against James Shields, but I have to admit that he’s been pretty solid this season. He has a 4.53 ERA/4.60 FIP, but that FIP dips down to 3.98 in home starts. He draws a great match-up today against the Royals who have just a .666 OPS/81 wRC+ against righties on the year.

The White Sox have a .704 OPS/93 wRC+ and face Brad Keller who has been great in his time as a starter this season. A 2.52 ERA/3.38 FIP overall, a 3.31 FIP as a starter. I just don’t see the kind of runs that the lines are showing here.

Bet White Sox/Royals Under 9.5 Runs at: [text-blocks id=”87″ slug=”bet-mlb”]

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