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1-1 last night on Patreon.
W Dodgers/Orioles Over 9.5 Runs
L Twins/Mariners Under 4 Runs First 5 Innings
Damn you, Sonny Gray. A 2-0 lead heading into the bottom of the fifth, he’d only allowed two hits in the game, and then he gives up four runs.
Three bets today.
All MLB tips are based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
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Los Angeles Dodgers at Baltimore Orioles Betting Tips:
LAD – Michael Grove
BAL – Tyler Wells
We got the easy over here last night and I’m going right back to it. It’s still hot outside and so are both of the offenses.
Grove has a 7.20 ERA/5.51 FIP as a starter this season. He’s pitcher better of late, but he’s not good. His projections aren’t pretty and the Orioles are killing it right now with a 140 wRC+ over the past two weeks. The Orioles bullpen has been good this season, but is really struggling of late with a 110 FIP- over the last two weeks.
Wells has a 3.13 ERA/5.33 FIP over his last four starts and he faces this Dodgers offense which is unlikely to go well. The Dodgers have a 113 wRC+ against righties and a 138 wRC+ over the last two weeks.
Dodgers/Orioles Over 9.5 Runs (-110)
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San Francisco Giants at Cincinnati Reds Betting Tips:
SFG – Anthony DeSclafani
CIN – Luke Weaver
I went back and forth on this one as DeSclafani has struggled a bit lately and the Giants offense has been a little cold, but the rest of it swings it their way.
Weaver is a big part of that as he has a 7.00 ERA/5.74 FIP for the season. The Giants have hit righties well with a 103 wRC+ against them with big walks and nice power. Walks and home runs are a weakness for Weaver.
DeSclafani is the worry here, but his track record and projections shows that better times are ahead. He’s off the injured list here so he should be fresh for this one. The Reds offense hasn’t been that hot of late either.
The bullpens are about equal, but the Giants are in better form.
Giants Moneyline (-130)
Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangers Betting Tips:
TBR – Taj Bradley
TEX – Nathan Eovaldi
Two great offenses and two solid pitchers, but Bradley is putting up some major red flags. Taj Bradley has allowed 4 or more runs in each of his last three starts with a lot of hard contact and home runs. The Rangers have been great at home and they have a 121 wRC+ over the past two weeks. The Rays bullpen has had struggles all year.
Eovaldi has come down to earth a bit of late, but he’s still been amazing to start the year with a 2.83 ERA/3.18 FIP. The Rays offense is dangerous. However, they have just a 79 wRC+ over the past two weeks. The Rangers bullpen has been lights out of late.
Rangers Moneyline (-124)
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