July 19th, 2016 Betting Tips: MLB

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Last night we saw one of the craziest games you’ll ever see in baseball. Chris Sale of the White Sox pitched an absolute gem of a game, going eight innings and only allowing a single hit and no runs. Then in the ninth inning his closer gave up four runs to the Mariners and lost the game. The White Sox win probability was over 90% when the inning started, but ended up at 0% by the time it ended. To me this is a baseball in a nutshell. Some really exciting stuff out of nowhere after watching a whole lot of nothing. What a comeback by the Mariners, who we have marked for a big second half after they severely underplayed their Pythagorean record in the first half.

We have some nice games today including a big pitching match-up between the Cubs and Mets as Jake Arrieta and Noah Syndergaard go to work. We also have the Nationals and Dodgers continuing their series, the Yankees and Orioles in an AL East battle and more. Let’s not waste any time and get right into the picks.

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MLB Betting Tips:

The Yankees have won two straight and suddenly it looks like they might not do the big trade deadline sell-off everyone expected them to do (and they probably should do). Today things should get a bit more muddled up for them as they face the Orioles at home with arguably their best pitcher talent-wise, Nathan Eovaldi, back on the mound. He had a rough month and then some injury woes, but he’s back in the rotation tonight and I am thinking he’ll have a good outing. The Orioles offense is always dangerous, but without Chris Davis it is… less dangerous. Working out in the Yankees favor is the opposing pitcher, Vance Worley who just gives up runs. He’ll be making his first appearance since April when he gave up seven runs across 10 2/3s innings. I don’t think he’s improved and I think the Yankees -108 will hit him hard today.

The big pitching match-up of the day is the big Arrieta/Syndergaard match-up. Before last night the Mets had won eight straight against the Cubs and the Mets will be looking to pick back up where they left off. Arrieta has looked very hittable for over a month now (including an 8.27 ERA over his past three starts) and I think the Mets have a good chance to continue that today. Syndergaard is one of our favorite pitchers and his road ERA isn’t as split as some pitchers of his ilk. The Mets +141 are a good pick to continue their dominance over Chicago today.

Our sleeper pitching match-up today is the Pittsburgh Pirates’ Jameson Taillon taking on the Brewers’ Junior Guerra. Taillon has improved in every start and I think he will be a big part of the Pirates success in the second half. Junior Guerra is one of the best stories in baseball as the former catcher just keeps pitching great, including a 1.27 ERA over his past three starts. This game has the potential to be very quiet on the offensive end and I like it for under 8 runs.

The Nationals put a young rookie pitcher making his debut out against the Dodgers today. Rookie phenoms are awesome, but their first starts are usually trouble. High pitch counts early usually equal more bullpen which usually equals better scoring chances for the opposing team. I like Reynaldo Lopez long term, but for today we are going against him. Dodgers -115

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