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Three MLB system picks and one NBA playoffs betting tip for July 1st, 2021.
The Finals are kind of up in the air right now with the Giannis injury. If you still believe the Bucks can pull it out, that Middleton bet I mentioned last time out is now +1600.
Atlanta Hawks at Milwaukee Bucks Betting Tips:
The Atlanta Hawks played the last game without Trae Young and the team did the thing where they really rally around the injury and show up in a major way. Even with that, the Bucks had a very solid chance to win this game until Giannis went down with an injury.
Now it is the Bucks turn to rally around their injured star and show up big. I think that is exactly what they will do here in front of what should be a very hot crowd in Milwaukee. We’ve seen this thing time and time again throughout the season and teams just have a way of showing up in a big way after an injury. I think the Bucks do just that tonight.
Pick: Bet Bucks -2.5
USA: Best Odds: -122 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.81 at
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/01 11:24:09 AM EST but are subject to change.)
MLB Betting Tips
All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
Question: What are these stats?
Answer: Check out our MLB System Stats Guide to find out.
Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corbin Burnes | 27 | 21 | 161 | 52 | 105 | 19 | 99 | 15 |
| PIT | 63 | 97 | 90 | 85 | 29 | 88 | 25 | |
| Wil Crowe | 152 | 187 | 80 | 116 | 97 | 11 | 105 | 20 |
| MIL | 99 | 114 | 104 | 87 | 24 | 118 | 8 |
This is the most lopsided match-up of the day and the Brewers are absolutely crushing it right now. They had some monster games against the Cubs and now they face a very hittable pitcher.
Corbin Burnes has been out of this world this season with a 2.53 ERA/1.19 FIP. He faces an offense that has just an 83 wRC+ against righties on the season. He should cruise.
Pick: Bet Brewers -1.5
USA: Best Odds: -145 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.68 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/01 11:24:09 AM EST but are subject to change.)
New York Mets at Atlanta Braves Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob deGrom | 23 | 30 | 185 | 44 | 91 | 7 | 114 | 25 |
| ATL | 122 | 110 | 104 | 101 | 12 | 105 | 14 | |
| Ian Anderson | 79 | 67 | 109 | 95 | 106 | 21 | 113 | 24 |
| NYM | 85 | 105 | 94 | 93 | 16 | 68 | 30 |
It is so rare that we get an opportunity to bet on Jacob deGrom at a reasonable price. I know the Atlanta offense is about the toughest match-up that he can get, but it doesn’t matter who he is facing right now. He is on another planet. He’s on a record setting pace with a 0.69 ERA/0.99 FIP.
The Mets offense hits righties well enough that I think they can scrounge one run here. I don’t think the Braves will do the same over the first five.
Pick: Bet Mets -0.5 First 5 Innings
Canada: Best Odds: -118 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
USA: Best Odds: 1.84 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: at
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/01 11:24:09 AM EST but are subject to change.)
San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Cueto | 97 | 93 | 78 | 47 | 104 | 16 | 88 | 8 |
| ARI | 76 | 103 | 92 | 87 | 24 | 75 | 28 | |
| Merrill Kelly | 97 | 102 | 88 | 71 | 118 | 29 | 153 | 29 |
| SFG | 128 | 110 | 110 | 110 | 4 | 121 | 6 |
These two pitchers are pretty similar, but the Giants offense and bullpen are much, much better than the Diamondbacks. That’s about all there is to this one.
The Giants have a 112 wRC+ against righties on the season. While the Diamondbacks hit righties with just a 82 wRC+. Over the past two weeks, the Diamondbacks have been cold and the Giants have been hot.
That’s it. That’s the tip.
Pick: Bet Giants Moneyline
Canada: Best Odds: -136 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
USA: Best Odds: 1.73 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: at
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/01 11:24:09 AM EST but are subject to change.)
