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MLB tips for July 22nd, 2022.
1-1 last night. 18-8 over the past week.
Six tips for tonight on Patreon, four are below.
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St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds Betting Tips:
STL – Adam Wainwright 3.00 ERA/3.74 FIP
CIN – Graham Ashcraft 4.45 ERA/4.01 FIP
A bit more expensive than I like to go here on the price, but the Cards just look really good to me here.
Wainwright is solid if unspectacular. The offense he goes against is just bad. 86 wRC+ against righties, 89 wRC+ on the season, 91 wRC+ over the L14, and 86 wRC+ over the L30. You can’t find a stat that makes this offense look good.
The Cardinals are a solid offense and I think they score here. Ashcraft is decent and I can see him doing well. The real target here is the bullpen as the Redsd have one of the worst in baseball. A 118 FIP- on the season and 138 FIP- over the past thirty days. They stink.
Cardinals Moneyline (-146)
Miami Marlins at Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Tips:
MIA – Braxton Garrett 3.70 ERA/3.45 FIP
PIT – Zach Thompson 4.09 ERA/5.44 FIP
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Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox Betting Tips:
TOR – Kevin Gausman 2.87 ERA/1.85 FIP
BOS – Nathan Eovaldi 3.34 ERA/4.60 FIP
Gausman has been one of the best pitchers in the league this season and I’m surprised to see the price on him so low here. Boston’s offense has a 99 wRC+ against righties this season and has struggled lately with a 84 wRC+ over the L14. If Gausman shows, I think the Jays can win here.
Eovaldi has had his struggles this year, especially with the homerun. The Jays can hit them in bunches. They have a 113 wRC+ against righties this year.
Also going with the over here. This park is always good for runs and we get a boost from the weather with hot temps and winds blowing out to center at 5-10 MPH. Both bullpens are average at best so I think they can get us over the top if needed.
Jays Moneyline (-120)
Jays/Red Sox Over 8.5 (-125)
Los Angeles Angels at Atlanta Braves Betting Tips:
LAA – Shohei Ohtani 2.38 ERA/2.27 FIP
ATL – Charlie Morton 4.45 ERA/4.20 FIP
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San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Tips:
SFG – Logan Webb 2.83 ERA/3.09 FIP
LAD – Tyler Anderson 2.96 ERA/3.33 FIP
Webb is good, but he’s had some amazing luck of late. Over his past five starts he has a 1.69 ERA/3.24 FIP with a huge 79.5% left on base. The Dodgers offense is really dangerous with a 122 wRC+ against them.
Anderson has been down a bit over his last five with a 3.26 ERA/3.90 FIP. His lack of strikeouts is appealing to me and the Giants hit lefties very well with a 116 wRC+ against them.
Last night’s game featured both bullpens giving up big runs. I’m not sure they’ll help us with quite that many, but both of these offense can put them to the test.
Giants/Dodgers Over 8 Runs (-110)
