July 25th, 2020 MLB Betting Tips: Yankees-Nationals, Royals-Indians

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A 2-0 record last night and a fantastic 3-0 start to the season.

It was very close and probably involved a little bit of luck, but we managed to stay undefeated on the young 2020 MLB season.

Our first pick was the Indians -1.5 against the Royals and this one ended up being a lot closer than we expected. Luckily, Shane Bieber was absolutely dominating with a 14-strikeout shutout performance. The Indians managed two runs which was enough to cover the -1.5 spread. A nail-biter to the end, but a win nonetheless.

We also took the over of 8 runs on the Padres and Diamondbacks. I was ready to write this one off after five innings when the score was tied 0-0 and then the sixth happened. Madison Bumgarner got into trouble and three runs crossed the plate in the sixth. Then the Diamondbacks got one on the top of the sixth before four more were added off Junior Guerra. That put us at a push and I was happy with that considering where this one started, but then the Diamondbacks added one in the top of the 9th to put us over. Eric Hosmer was the star of the day in baseball with 6 RBIs.

Finally, we once again laid the runs with the Dodgers over the Giants and that one came in. However, Jeff Samardzija didn’t make the start and the rules are to ignore my picks if the starter changes. I didn’t update the post so I can’t take credit for that one. Congratulations if you were on it though.

I honestly don’t know what is going on with the Giants right now as they didn’t start him and then they used Drew Smyly and Kevin Gausman, two starters, out of the bullpen in this series. I know Gabe Kapler is meant to be an “unconventional” manager, but this just makes no sense.

Best Odds for MLB:

Type of Bet / Prop: Where To Bet:
R + H + E BetOnline
MLB Grand Salami (Total Runs That Day) Bovada
World Series Futures SportsBetting.ag
5 Inning Run Lines BetOnline
1st Inning Moneylines Bovada
Total Team Runs Over/Under Bovada

All tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted.

Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Indians Betting Tips:

Royals: Brady Singer 3.47 ERA/3.78 FIP (2019 in AA)
Indians: Mike Clevinger 2.71 ERA/2.49 FIP (2019)

This one is pretty simple. Mike Clevinger is a very good pitcher who had an enormous strikeout rate of 12.07 K/9 last season. He’s facing one of the worst offenses in the league, who just got shut out yesterday, and he’s at home.

Brady Singer is making his MLB debut and while he is a very solid prospect, I would’ve liked to have seen a lot more of him in the minor leagues. A 3.78 FIP is not demanding of a promotion and the projection systems see him having a very tough adjustment to the major leagues. ZiPS at FanGraphs sees him having a 4.94 ERA this season. That’s not great.

Singer could have a bright future, but not today. I am going to lay the runs with the Indians today as I think they are going to end up with a lot more than two runs.

Bet Indians -1.5 (-130)

New York Yankees at Washington Nationals Betting Tips:

Yankees: James Paxton 3.82 ERA/3.86 FIP (2019)
Nationals: Stephen Strasburg 3.23 ERA/3.25 FIP (2019)

I honestly don’t think we appreciate Stephen Strasburg enough. He’s probably never been the very best pitcher in the league, but he’s always been right in that group and he’s been remarkably consistent in his career. He’s had a K/9 rate over 10 for the past six years and he always keeps his walks and homeruns down. He’s just solidly solid. He draws a very tough match-up here, but I think it’s one he can handle. I’m not looking for a shutout or anything here, but I think he’ll limit the damage this offense does while lasting six or more innings.

He goes against James Paxton, who I absolutely love, but am just not trusting in this spot. He’s a huge strikeout pitcher, but his adjustment to New York has not been easy. The Nationals offense is well balanced and I think they can make for an easy exit for Paxton. He did not go deep often last season with more than half his starts last less than six innings.

The Nationals are a slight underdog, at home, and I think that’s worth a play.

Bet Nationals +110

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