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A 2-2 record with a rainout last night.
All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
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Answer: Check out our MLB System Stats Guide to find out.
New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nestor Cortes | 53 | 25 | 132 | 106 | 87 | 3 | 106 | 15 |
| TBR | 104 | 111 | 113 | 103 | 8 | 117 | 6 | |
| Michael Wacha | 124 | 149 | 86 | 74 | 84 | 1 | 56 | 1 |
| NYY | 109 | 104 | 126 | 101 | 12 | 109 | 10 |
Not sure how long Cortes will go here, but this bet is mostly about the Yankees offense against Michael Wacha. Low strikeouts, high homeruns, and a 5.16 ERA/5.08 FIP. He is the kind of pitcher that we love targeting and the Yankees offense still has power.
Pick: Bet Yankees First 5 Innings Moneyline
USA: Best Odds: +100 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 2.00 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/28 12:26:09 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Mahle | 94 | 114 | 123 | 104 | 112 | 28 | 121 | 23 |
| CHC | 108 | 116 | 91 | 90 | 20 | 89 | 25 | |
| Zach Davies | 113 | 66 | 65 | 132 | 102 | 17 | 136 | 27 |
| CIN | 107 | 103 | 96 | 99 | 14 | 95 | 20 |
With the trade deadline coming up, the Cubs could look like a much different team. Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, and Anthony Rizzo are all on the block and we could see them traded at any time. That isn’t why we’re betting this, but it definitely plays a factor and should be considered.
I’ve been a fan of the Reds offense all season and I love them against Zach Davies. He has a 4.30 ERA/4.65 FIP with high walks and low strikeouts. He is very hittable. The Reds should do that.
Pick: Bet Reds Moneyline
USA: Best Odds: -108 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.92 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/28 12:26:09 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Arizona Diamondbacks at Texas Rangers Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madison Bumgarner | 105 | 117 | 96 | 69 | 118 | 30 | 96 | 10 |
| TEX | 101 | 103 | 94 | 85 | 29 | 33 | 30 | |
| Jordan Lyles | 132 | 158 | 76 | 84 | 100 | 13 | 97 | 11 |
| ARI | 76 | 104 | 96 | 87 | 26 | 122 | 4 |
Not a big fan of either of these pitchers, but the Rangers have been not very good against lefties while Madison Bumgarner has looked decent of late with just one run allowed in each of his last two starts. The Rangers offense has power, but is weak overall. I think he can succeed here.
The Diamondbacks offense has been hitting the ball well of late and Lyles is very hittable. He has a 5.20 ERA/5.53 FIP with a high homerun rate.
Pick: Bet Diamondbacks First 5 Innings Moneyline
USA: Best Odds: -110 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.90 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/28 12:26:09 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Giolito | 92 | 113 | 119 | 91 | 94 | 6 | 131 | 26 |
| KCR | 86 | 94 | 86 | 90 | 20 | 108 | 12 | |
| Kris Bubic | 138 | 144 | 81 | 135 | 112 | 28 | 72 | 4 |
| CHW | 88 | 100 | 117 | 111 | 3 | 97 | 19 |
The White Sox are a big favorite here and there is no good reason they won’t hit Bubic today. They have a huge 115 wRC+ against lefties and Bubic is just not very good. He has a 4.72 ERA/5.76 FIP with low strikeouts, big walks, and a high homerun rate. This is a juicy match-up all around.
Giolito is one of the best pitchers going on the mound today. Easy pick here.
Pick: Bet White Sox -0.5 First 5 Innings
USA: Best Odds: -130 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.76 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/28 12:26:09 PM EST but are subject to change.)
