July 28th, 2021 MLB Betting Tips

A 2-2 record with a rainout last night.

All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.

Question: What are these stats?
Answer: Check out our MLB System Stats Guide to find out.

New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Nestor Cortes 53 25 132 106 87 3 106 15
TBR   104 111 113 103 8 117 6
Michael Wacha 124 149 86 74 84 1 56 1
NYY   109 104 126 101 12 109 10

Not sure how long Cortes will go here, but this bet is mostly about the Yankees offense against Michael Wacha. Low strikeouts, high homeruns, and a 5.16 ERA/5.08 FIP. He is the kind of pitcher that we love targeting and the Yankees offense still has power.

Pick: Bet Yankees First 5 Innings Moneyline

USA: Best Odds: +100 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 2.00 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/28 12:26:09 PM EST but are subject to change.)

Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Tyler Mahle 94 114 123 104 112 28 121 23
CHC   108 116 91 90 20 89 25
Zach Davies 113 66 65 132 102 17 136 27
CIN   107 103 96 99 14 95 20

With the trade deadline coming up, the Cubs could look like a much different team. Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, and Anthony Rizzo are all on the block and we could see them traded at any time. That isn’t why we’re betting this, but it definitely plays a factor and should be considered.

I’ve been a fan of the Reds offense all season and I love them against Zach Davies. He has a 4.30 ERA/4.65 FIP with high walks and low strikeouts. He is very hittable. The Reds should do that.

Pick: Bet Reds Moneyline

USA: Best Odds: -108 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.92 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/28 12:26:09 PM EST but are subject to change.)

Arizona Diamondbacks at Texas Rangers Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Madison Bumgarner 105 117 96 69 118 30 96 10
TEX   101 103 94 85 29 33 30
Jordan Lyles 132 158 76 84 100 13 97 11
ARI   76 104 96 87 26 122 4

Not a big fan of either of these pitchers, but the Rangers have been not very good against lefties while Madison Bumgarner has looked decent of late with just one run allowed in each of his last two starts. The Rangers offense has power, but is weak overall. I think he can succeed here.

The Diamondbacks offense has been hitting the ball well of late and Lyles is very hittable. He has a 5.20 ERA/5.53 FIP with a high homerun rate.

Pick: Bet Diamondbacks First 5 Innings Moneyline

USA: Best Odds: -110 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.90 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/28 12:26:09 PM EST but are subject to change.)

Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Lucas Giolito 92 113 119 91 94 6 131 26
KCR   86 94 86 90 20 108 12
Kris Bubic 138 144 81 135 112 28 72 4
CHW   88 100 117 111 3 97 19

The White Sox are a big favorite here and there is no good reason they won’t hit Bubic today. They have a huge 115 wRC+ against lefties and Bubic is just not very good. He has a 4.72 ERA/5.76 FIP with low strikeouts, big walks, and a high homerun rate. This is a juicy match-up all around.

Giolito is one of the best pitchers going on the mound today. Easy pick here.

Pick: Bet White Sox -0.5 First 5 Innings

USA: Best Odds: -130 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.76 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/28 12:26:09 PM EST but are subject to change.)

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