Follow @SBTSportBetting [Get Exclusive Tips on our Patreon, Ad-Free]
3-1 last night.
Five MLB System tips for July 27th, 2021.
All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
Question: What are these stats?
Answer: Check out our MLB System Stats Guide to find out.
Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erick Fedde | 105 | 94 | 87 | 120 | 101 | 14 | 147 | 29 |
| PHI | 98 | 109 | 99 | 94 | 17 | 94 | 22 | |
| Matt Moore | 133 | 162 | 81 | 114 | 108 | 26 | 141 | 28 |
| WSN | 93 | 98 | 88 | 100 | 13 | 131 | 3 |
A walk-off three-run homerun is the only thing that cost us a perfect night last night. We won’t make that same mistake of trusting these bullpens tonight!
Just like last night, the Nationals look like the much better play. Their offense is absolutely clicking right now and Matt Moore is an extremely hittable pitcher.
Pick: Bet Nationals First 5 Innings Moneyline
USA: Best Odds: -110 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.90 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/27 1:35:51 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robbie Ray | 101 | 144 | 132 | 71 | 106 | 22 | 171 | 30 |
| BOS | 107 | 98 | 90 | 104 | 7 | 103 | 15 | |
| Garrett Richards | 117 | 101 | 74 | 115 | 95 | 7 | 122 | 24 |
| TOR | 127 | 92 | 93 | 112 | 2 | 132 | 2 |
This is the classic “if it’s a slugfest, bet this team” kind of play.
I do like Robbie Ray in this match-up as he’s put up some big strikeout numbers and kept his walks respectable. That said, this game has a high total and there will be runs scored.
I am not trusting of either bullpen, but I trust the Jays to hit Richards early to get the padding they need to hold on.
Pick: Bet Blue Jays Moneyline
USA: Best Odds: -127 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.78 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/27 1:35:51 PM EST but are subject to change.)
New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Montgomery | 83 | 81 | 103 | 83 | 87 | 3 | 106 | 15 |
| TBR | 104 | 111 | 113 | 103 | 8 | 117 | 6 | |
| Shane McClanahan | 89 | 98 | 121 | 93 | 84 | 1 | 56 | 1 |
| NYY | 109 | 104 | 126 | 101 | 12 | 109 | 10 |
Things aren’t going great for the Yankees right now, but I thought this line was a bit unfair. Jordan Montgomery has been very good this season with a 3.96 ERA/3.58 FIP. The Rays offense has been below average against lefties on the season.
The Yankees offense continues to be very good against left handed pitching. Root for the tie here, but I think they’ll have the lead after five.
Pick: Bet Yankees +0.5 First 5 Innings
USA: Best Odds: -120 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.83 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/27 1:35:51 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Angels Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Gomber | 91 | 107 | 99 | 78 | 111 | 27 | 92 | 9 |
| LAA | 117 | 97 | 82 | 107 | 6 | 95 | 20 | |
| Jose Suarez | 98 | 86 | 94 | 111 | 106 | 22 | 107 | 16 |
| COL | 78 | 99 | 88 | 75 | 30 | 65 | 29 |
Same story here as last night. The Rockies offense is just plain terrible and they should make Suarez look good. The Rockies have been ice cold of late and have just an 89 wRC+ against lefties on the season.
The Angels offense has been very good against lefties with a 115 wRC+ for the year. They are just much better all around and it’s weird that this line is so low.
Pick: Bet Angels Moneyline
USA: Best Odds: -132 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.75 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/27 1:35:51 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lance McCullers Jr. | 81 | 46 | 117 | 135 | 105 | 20 | 102 | 13 |
| SEA | 103 | 112 | 101 | 90 | 20 | 101 | 17 | |
| Chris Flexen | 88 | 61 | 66 | 60 | 86 | 2 | 89 | 8 |
| HOU | 108 | 83 | 110 | 117 | 1 | 89 | 25 |
The Mariners came back from a seven-run deficit against this team last night and I’m not about to bet against them pulling off something similar tonight. The system sees this as nearly a coinflip, but the difference in bullpen quality is big as we all saw last night.
Seattle doesn’t look that good on paper, but there is undoubtedly something happening here. Getting them with some runs is a nice play as I expect at the very least that they keep it close.
Pick: Bet Mariners +1.5
USA: Best Odds: -118 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.84 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/27 1:35:51 PM EST but are subject to change.)
