July 27th, 2021 MLB Betting Tips

3-1 last night.

Five MLB System tips for July 27th, 2021.

All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.

Question: What are these stats?
Answer: Check out our MLB System Stats Guide to find out.

Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Erick Fedde 105 94 87 120 101 14 147 29
PHI   98 109 99 94 17 94 22
Matt Moore 133 162 81 114 108 26 141 28
WSN   93 98 88 100 13 131 3

A walk-off three-run homerun is the only thing that cost us a perfect night last night. We won’t make that same mistake of trusting these bullpens tonight!

Just like last night, the Nationals look like the much better play. Their offense is absolutely clicking right now and Matt Moore is an extremely hittable pitcher.

Pick: Bet Nationals First 5 Innings Moneyline

USA: Best Odds: -110 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.90 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/27 1:35:51 PM EST but are subject to change.)

Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Robbie Ray 101 144 132 71 106 22 171 30
BOS   107 98 90 104 7 103 15
Garrett Richards 117 101 74 115 95 7 122 24
TOR   127 92 93 112 2 132 2

This is the classic “if it’s a slugfest, bet this team” kind of play.

I do like Robbie Ray in this match-up as he’s put up some big strikeout numbers and kept his walks respectable. That said, this game has a high total and there will be runs scored.

I am not trusting of either bullpen, but I trust the Jays to hit Richards early to get the padding they need to hold on.

Pick: Bet Blue Jays Moneyline

USA: Best Odds: -127 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.78 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/27 1:35:51 PM EST but are subject to change.)

New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Jordan Montgomery 83 81 103 83 87 3 106 15
TBR   104 111 113 103 8 117 6
Shane McClanahan 89 98 121 93 84 1 56 1
NYY   109 104 126 101 12 109 10

Things aren’t going great for the Yankees right now, but I thought this line was a bit unfair. Jordan Montgomery has been very good this season with a 3.96 ERA/3.58 FIP. The Rays offense has been below average against lefties on the season.

The Yankees offense continues to be very good against left handed pitching. Root for the tie here, but I think they’ll have the lead after five.

Pick: Bet Yankees +0.5 First 5 Innings

USA: Best Odds: -120 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.83 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/27 1:35:51 PM EST but are subject to change.)

Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Angels Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Austin Gomber 91 107 99 78 111 27 92 9
LAA   117 97 82 107 6 95 20
Jose Suarez 98 86 94 111 106 22 107 16
COL   78 99 88 75 30 65 29

Same story here as last night. The Rockies offense is just plain terrible and they should make Suarez look good. The Rockies have been ice cold of late and have just an 89 wRC+ against lefties on the season.

The Angels offense has been very good against lefties with a 115 wRC+ for the year. They are just much better all around and it’s weird that this line is so low.

Pick: Bet Angels Moneyline

USA: Best Odds: -132 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.75 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/27 1:35:51 PM EST but are subject to change.)

Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Lance McCullers Jr. 81 46 117 135 105 20 102 13
SEA   103 112 101 90 20 101 17
Chris Flexen 88 61 66 60 86 2 89 8
HOU   108 83 110 117 1 89 25

The Mariners came back from a seven-run deficit against this team last night and I’m not about to bet against them pulling off something similar tonight. The system sees this as nearly a coinflip, but the difference in bullpen quality is big as we all saw last night.

Seattle doesn’t look that good on paper, but there is undoubtedly something happening here. Getting them with some runs is a nice play as I expect at the very least that they keep it close.

Pick: Bet Mariners +1.5

USA: Best Odds: -118 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.84 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/27 1:35:51 PM EST but are subject to change.)

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