July 30th, 2021 MLB Betting Tips

Four MLB System tips for July 30th, 2021.

3-0 last night!

All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.

Question: What are these stats?
Answer: Check out our MLB System Stats Guide to find out.

Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Corbin Burnes 31 22 154 50 103 19 117 21
ATL   117 109 102 99 15 101 17
Touki Toussaint 61 55 124 43 99 12 86 5
MIL   101 113 107 91 20 119 5

The Braves offense is dangerous, but so is Corbin Burnes. He’s one of the best pitchers in the game with a 2.12 ERA/1.35 FIP. He’s as dominant as they comes and has done a great job of limiting homeruns this season. That’s kind of the Braves whole thing so if he can stop that, he can shut them down today. He has a high strikeout rate and the Braves have one to match.

Toussaint has been decent in his two starts, but he is far outperforming his projections. I don’t think he’s this good and I think the Brewers prove it today.

Pick: Bet Brewers -0.5 First 5 Innings Moneyline

USA: Best Odds: -110 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.90 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/30 1:19:16 PM EST but are subject to change.)

Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Logan Gilbert 71 62 121 64 86 2 96 10
TEX   101 103 94 84 28 40 30
Kolby Allard 103 126 93 57 100 14 97 11
SEA   103 113 102 91 20 108 12

Logan Gilbert has been excellent of late and the Rangers have lost 13 of their past 14 games. They traded away Joey Gallo so the offense takes a hit. The Mariners have dominated them in their match-ups this season and actually have something to play for going forward. I think I’d prefer the F5, but we’ll have to wait and see what the lines look like.

Pick: Bet Mariners -0.5 First 5 Innings

USA: Best Odds: -110 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.90 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/30 1:19:16 PM EST but are subject to change.)

Cleveland Indians at Chicago White Sox Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
JC Mejia 124 156 97 97 91 5 98 12
CHW   88 100 115 108 3 80 28
Lance Lynn 74 68 116 88 93 6 114 20
CLE   105 101 89 87 26 81 27

This one was very close, but I believe in Lance Lynn enough and think the Indians offense is bad enough to go with it.

Cleveland has just an 86 wRC+ against righties on the season while Lynn has a 1.91 ERA/3.15 FIP on the season.

Not a big sample size on Mejia, but he has the walk and homerun numbers we like to target and has been worse on the road. The White Sox offense has a 107 wRC+ for the season against righties.

Pick: Bet White Sox -1.5

USA: Best Odds: -114 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.87 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/30 1:19:16 PM EST but are subject to change.)

Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Tony Gonsolin 100 89 118 158 95 8 106 16
ARI   76 104 96 86 27 111 10
Zac Gallen 105 104 114 127 116 30 88 6
LAD   115 102 110 108 3 98 21

This is a game that I wanted to bet and had to find the best way to do it. Gonsolin is no lights out pitcher, but the Diamondbacks offense is kind of bad and they recently traded one of their best hitters.

The Dodgers offense is very dangerous and I think they can hit Zac Gallen. He’s struggled with the walk and homerun this season which is the exact wrong thing you want to do against the Dodgers who are near the top of the league in both categories.

Pick: Bet Dodgers -0.5 First 5 Innings

USA: Best Odds: -120 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.83 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/30 1:19:16 PM EST but are subject to change.)

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