July 29th, 2021 MLB Betting Tips

Three MLB System tips for July 29th, 2021.

2-1-1 last night.

All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.

Question: What are these stats?
Answer: Check out our MLB System Stats Guide to find out.

Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Freddy Peralta 76 74 148 127 102 17 116 21
PIT   70 97 91 86 28 111 9
Chad Kuhl 130 110 84 141 99 12 126 25
MIL   101 114 108 90 20 105 13

Just a great pitcher against a bad offense and a bad pitcher against an okay offense.

Freddy Peralta is the story of this bet. He has a 2.29 ERA/3.19 FIP on the year with a big strikeout rate and he keeps the homeruns down. The Pirates are one of the weakest homerun hitting teams in the league so that is no issue and about an average strikeout team. He should have a good day.

Chad Kuhl is meh. A 4.38 ERA/5.38 FIP shows he’s been luckier than good. The Brewers offense has been much better over the past few months so I think they score enough here early.

Pick: Bet Brewers -0.5 First 5 Innings

USA: Best Odds: -130 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.76 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/29 11:27:55 AM EST but are subject to change.)

Baltimore Orioles at Detroit Tigers Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Alex Wells 133 136 72 147 97 10 57 2
DET   93 112 101 93 18 117 6
Casey Mize 107 108 85 77 106 22 57 2
BAL   96 102 89 92 19 93 23

Not a big sample size on Wells, but his projections look awful. Low strikeouts, high walks, the whole deal. The ZiPS projection has him at a 6.46 ERA/6.40 FIP for the rest of the season. The Tigers have a 92 wRC+ against lefties. Not the best, but better than what we’re seeing out of Baltimore against righties.

Casey Mize had a rough time out last time, but before that he had four appearances allowing two runs or less. He’s not been going very deep, but he has been keeping scoring down. With the Orioles having a 85 wRC+ against righties this season, I think he’s worth a bet.

Pick: Bet Tigers -0.5 First 5 Innings

USA: Best Odds: -120 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.83 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/29 11:27:55 AM EST but are subject to change.)

Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP- HR/9+ K%+ BB%+ Bullpen FIP-
Team wRC+
Rank BP FIP- L14
wRC+ L14
Rank
Kyle Freeland 122 149 73 82 111 27 92 9
SDP   100 97 109 102 9 121 5
Joe Musgrove 85 90 116 69 95 7 107 16
COL   78 99 88 75 30 65 29

The Padres are an easy bet here and the System’s favorite game of the day. Kyle Freeland has a 5.99 FIP on the road this season and is just not very good. The Padres offense is very good.

Joe Musgrove has been excellent all year with a 3.13 ERA/3.55 FIP and a big strikeout rate. The Rockies are the worst offense in baseball and have a 70 wRC+ against righties. They stink and they stink away from home more.

All over the Padres here.

Pick: Bet Padres -1.5

USA: Best Odds: -130 at BetOnline – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.76 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/29 11:27:55 AM EST but are subject to change.)

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