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Three MLB System tips for July 29th, 2021.
2-1-1 last night.
All MLB tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
Question: What are these stats?
Answer: Check out our MLB System Stats Guide to find out.
Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freddy Peralta | 76 | 74 | 148 | 127 | 102 | 17 | 116 | 21 |
| PIT | 70 | 97 | 91 | 86 | 28 | 111 | 9 | |
| Chad Kuhl | 130 | 110 | 84 | 141 | 99 | 12 | 126 | 25 |
| MIL | 101 | 114 | 108 | 90 | 20 | 105 | 13 |
Just a great pitcher against a bad offense and a bad pitcher against an okay offense.
Freddy Peralta is the story of this bet. He has a 2.29 ERA/3.19 FIP on the year with a big strikeout rate and he keeps the homeruns down. The Pirates are one of the weakest homerun hitting teams in the league so that is no issue and about an average strikeout team. He should have a good day.
Chad Kuhl is meh. A 4.38 ERA/5.38 FIP shows he’s been luckier than good. The Brewers offense has been much better over the past few months so I think they score enough here early.
Pick: Bet Brewers -0.5 First 5 Innings
USA: Best Odds: -130 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.76 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/29 11:27:55 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Baltimore Orioles at Detroit Tigers Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wells | 133 | 136 | 72 | 147 | 97 | 10 | 57 | 2 |
| DET | 93 | 112 | 101 | 93 | 18 | 117 | 6 | |
| Casey Mize | 107 | 108 | 85 | 77 | 106 | 22 | 57 | 2 |
| BAL | 96 | 102 | 89 | 92 | 19 | 93 | 23 |
Not a big sample size on Wells, but his projections look awful. Low strikeouts, high walks, the whole deal. The ZiPS projection has him at a 6.46 ERA/6.40 FIP for the rest of the season. The Tigers have a 92 wRC+ against lefties. Not the best, but better than what we’re seeing out of Baltimore against righties.
Casey Mize had a rough time out last time, but before that he had four appearances allowing two runs or less. He’s not been going very deep, but he has been keeping scoring down. With the Orioles having a 85 wRC+ against righties this season, I think he’s worth a bet.
Pick: Bet Tigers -0.5 First 5 Innings
USA: Best Odds: -120 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.83 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/29 11:27:55 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres Betting Tips:
| Pitcher | FIP- | HR/9+ | K%+ | BB%+ | Bullpen FIP- Team wRC+ |
Rank | BP FIP- L14 wRC+ L14 |
Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Freeland | 122 | 149 | 73 | 82 | 111 | 27 | 92 | 9 |
| SDP | 100 | 97 | 109 | 102 | 9 | 121 | 5 | |
| Joe Musgrove | 85 | 90 | 116 | 69 | 95 | 7 | 107 | 16 |
| COL | 78 | 99 | 88 | 75 | 30 | 65 | 29 |
The Padres are an easy bet here and the System’s favorite game of the day. Kyle Freeland has a 5.99 FIP on the road this season and is just not very good. The Padres offense is very good.
Joe Musgrove has been excellent all year with a 3.13 ERA/3.55 FIP and a big strikeout rate. The Rockies are the worst offense in baseball and have a 70 wRC+ against righties. They stink and they stink away from home more.
All over the Padres here.
Pick: Bet Padres -1.5
USA: Best Odds: -130 at BetOnline - 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
Everyone Else: Best Odds: 1.76 at SportsBetting.ag – 50% to $1000 Welcome Bonus
(Odds correct as of 2021/07/29 11:27:55 AM EST but are subject to change.)
