July 4th, 2022 MLB Betting Tips

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It’s the 4th of July in America and is there anything more American than baseball? Maybe McDonalds.

There are six MLB tips today on Patreon. Four are available below.

I have been betting and taking part in sports betting affiliate programs for over a decade now and I always hear the same thing when it comes to sports in July: there’s nothing to bet on. But that is simply not true. I was working on the sports betting calendar for this month and there is just a ton of baseball games, WNBA, F1, NASCAR, tennis, and so much more. Plus, my favorite event in all of golf: The Open at St. Andrews.

So don’t let anyone tell you there is nothing to bet. We had a nice weekend on Patreon with Graeme posting profits in golf and the F1 British Grand Prix. I have daily MLB tips, but Graeme also covers golf, F1, and WNBA.

Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers Betting Tips

CHC – Justin Steele 4.39 ERA/3.50 FIP
MIL – Eric Lauer 4.02 ERA/4.76 FIP

Both of these offenses come into this game hitting the ball really well of late. This ballpark is homerun friendly so that helps the offense today as well.

Lauer has really struggled of late with a 6.83 ERA/6.59 FIP over his last five starts. The Cubs hit lefties well with a 105 wRC+.

Steele has been good of late, but even his best is still right around average. I don’t see him shutting things down today and I think the Brewers put up some runs here.

Cubs/Brewers Over 8.5 (-114)

San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Tips

SFG – Carlos Rodon 2.62 ERA/2.29 FIP
ARI – Madison Bumgarner 3.63 ERA/4.70 FIP

One of the best pitchers in baseball this season against a very below average offense against lefties, the Diamondbacks are hitting for just an 84 wRC+ this season.

Bumgarner is a pitcher I always believe was he’s low strikeouts and usually struggles with the homerun. The Giants hit lefties well with a 105 wRC+ against them.

Giants -0.5 First 5 Innings (-130)

New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds Betting Tips

NYM – Taijuan Walker 2.72 ERA/3.09 FIP
CIN – Hunter Greene 5.72 ERA/5.53 FIP

Seattle Mariners at San Diego Padres Betting Tips

SEA – Chris Flexen 4.32 ERA/4.52 FIP
SDP – Sean Manaea 3.92 ERA/3.80 FIP

Flexen has a 3.86 ERA/3.94 FIP over his past five starts and the Padres offense has been below average against righties on the season. The bullpen behind him has really been getting it done of late with a league best 1.19 ERA/2.53 FIP over the past two weeks.

Manaea has struggled of late with a 4.30 ERA/4.29 FIP over his past five starts. The Mariners offense has been strong against lefties with a 106 wRC+ against them. The Padres bullpen isn’t bad, but it hasn’t been near as good as the Mariners of late.

This is a close call, but the Mariners are way too big of an underdog based on what the System sees.

Mariners Moneyline (+157)

Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox Betting Tips

MIN – Dylan Bundy 4.71 ERA/4.32 FIP
CHW – Johnny Cueto 3.33 ERA/4.15 FIP

Toronto Blue Jays at Oakland Athletics Betting Tips

TOR – Alek Manoah 2.09 ERA/3.07 FIP
OAK – Cole Irvin 3.58 ERA/4.43 FIP

The System obviously loves the Jays here, but they are an expensive bet all around. -150 on a -1.5? Give me a break.

I do like the team total over here though. The Jays crush lefties with a 127 wRC+ against them. Irvin is definitely hittable here as he has a 4.55 ERA/4.94 FIP over his past five starts. During that run he has a huge 1.82 HR/9 rate, not something you want against a team like this.

Jays Over 4.5 Runs (-120)