July 5th, 2022 MLB Betting Tips



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3-3 last night, but profitable thanks to a +157 Mariners win and a +108 Giants win. I like those.

Six tips for tonight on Patreon. Three are available below.

Heads up as the Mariners/Padres game starts in just a couple hours. The rest are for tonight.

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Seattle Mariners at San Diego Padres Betting Tips:

SEA – Logan Gilbert 2.66 ERA/3.46 FIP
SDP – Mike Clevinger 2.79 ERA/3.35 FIP

This is basically the same deal as yesterday where it’s close, but the Mariners are underdogs so we have to go with it.

Clevinger has pitched well of late, but the Mariners offense is hot and they hit righties well. We definitely saw that yesterday and I hope some of it carries over here.

Gilbert has been okay thus far with his main weakness being homeruns. The Padres are one of the weaker teams in that category and this park is pitcher friendly so he should get a boost there. As I said yesterday, the Mariners bullpen has been great of late.

Mariners Moneyline (+120)

Los Angeles Angels at Miami Marlins Betting Tips:

LAA – Noah Syndergaard 3.86 ERA/3.74 FIP
MIA – Sandy Alcantara 1.95 ERA/3.02 FIP


Texas Rangers at Baltimore Orioles Betting Tips:

TEX – Spencer Howard 5.23 ERA/4.76 FIP (Projection)
BAL – Austin Voth 7.34 ERA/4.35 FIP (Opener)

This is a weird one because while both of these starters seem hittable, the System likes the under here.

Why? Because both of these offense are below average against righties and both of these bullpens are very good.

The Orioles bullpen might be the best in the league. They have a 54 FIP- over the past two weeks. Dominant. The Rangers aren’t quite that good, but an 88 FIP- over the past two weeks is really good.

Rangers/Orioles Under 9.5 (-105)

Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers Betting Tips:

CLE – Cal Quantrill 3.72 ERA/4.47 FIP
DET – Drew Hutchison 4.81 ERA/4.76 FIP


Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers Betting Tips:

CHC – Kyle Hendricks 4.76 ERA/4.75 FIP
MIL – Jason Alexander 3.82 ERA/4.35 FIP

These two teams let us down on the over last night, but I am going right back to it today.

Hendricks has been solid of late, but I’m not sure I buy it. He’s still allowing big homeruns and he doesn’t strike many out. This park is homer friendly and the Brewers hit righties well with a 105 wRC+ against them. Their offense is all homerun based too, they rank fourth in MLB in that category.

Alexander has been very lucky early. He’s struck out almost no one and has been skating by with a 6.5% HR/FB rate. We’ve seen some cracks with him already and could see some more today on a muggy day in Milwaukee.

Both of these offenses has been hot over the two weeks and the System sees both teams scoring 4+ here.

Cubs/Brewers Over 8.5 (-121)
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San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Tips

SFG – Alex Wood 5.03 ERRA/3.58 FIP
ARI – Tyler Gilbert 7.88 ERA/8.36 FIP


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