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This week we saw the crowning of the NBA and NHL champions as the Warriors and Penguins both locked up their series. These are two dynasty type teams as the Warriors just completed the best three-year run we’ve ever seen and the Penguins became the first back-to-back champions in 19 years. Congratulations to those teams, but now it is time to settle in for the summer and the baseball season.
The story of the season thus far has been homeruns and how many of them we’ve seen. They are being hit at a record pace and they seem to be going up and up every day. Contact rate is down and strikeouts are up, but the homeruns are what is keeping offenses afloat and today should be a great day for them. It is getting really hot and humid out there and that always benefits offense. Last season we saw Stephen Strasburg, one of the best pitchers in the game, hit hard by the longball and that should tell you that no one is safe.
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Last night the Braves and Nationals scored 21 runs on a very hot and humid day in Washington. Guess what today is going to be? Nintey degrees with 49% humidity at game time. With RA Dickey and Joe Ross on the mound, I am not scared at all of the over 10 runs in this one. In fact, I’m quite excited by it. There will be runs.
Another interesting over would be the Cubs and Mets. 95 degrees with 32% humidity, this should be another one where the ball is flying. The Cubs offense has been trying to break out for weeks and the Mets just got Yoenis Cespedes back which opens up their lineup a lot. I like the Cubs offense against Zack Wheeler a bit more than the Mets against Lester, but I do think both teams will score and I do think the over 8.5 runs is firmly in play.
Somehow the Seattle Mariners are an underdog against the Minnesota Twins and Kyle Gibson. They lost to him last week, but that game had bad umpiring and some unlucky breaks. Robinson Cano had a two-error play that ended up costing them the game. I don’t expect things to go quite like that tonight with 87 degree game time temps and 52% humidity. The Mariners exploded for 14 runs last night and I could see a similar outburst again here tonight. Seattle +120 is a nice value as they have been playing really great baseball over the past few weeks.
The Yankees are the hottest offense in the game right now. They’ve scored five or more in six straight games and face JC Ramirez who has struggled at times this year. They send CC Sabathia to the mound, and while the Angels offense isn’t the scariest thing in the world right now, he is a pitcher that we like to pick on. I feel like the total on this one is set conspicuously low considering what the Yanks have done as of late and I will be on it. Over 8.5 runs is the play here.