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It looks like a great day for baseball as there are nine picks that the System likes today. I have shared four below. The rest of them can be unlocked on Patreon.
The weather is going to be great for hitting today with hot, humid weather across the country. June is typically one of the best months for hitting and this one looks to be no different.
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Bet Horse Racing - +£21,565.98 profit on £25/pt staking. Click for more details.
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Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies Betting Tips:
MIA – Trevor Rogers 5.58 ERA/4.84 FIP
PHI – Zach Eflin 3.76 ERA/3.43 FIP
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Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees Betting Tips:
TBR – Corey Kluber 3.88 ERA/3.65 FIP
NYY – Gerrit Cole 3.63 ERA/3.58 FIP
Gerrit Cole has been a bit off of late, but he’s still been great. His main issue has been the homerun ball, but that is one area that the Rays are below average in. I think we see a good start from him here and the Yankees bullpen has been one of the best in baseball.
Kluber’s best days are behind him and he gets the toughest match-up in the league right now. The Yankees bash everyone and have a 121 wRC+ against righties. This could get ugly.
Yankees -1.5 (-108)
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Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays Betting Tips:
BAL – Jordan Lyles 4.97 ERA/4.41 FIP
TOR – Yusei Kikuchi 4.44 ERA/4.73 FIP
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Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers Betting Tips:
CHW – Dylan Cease 3.14 ERA/2.97 FIP
DET – Drew Hutchison 4.60 ERA/4.36 FIP
Cease has had a few rough starts, but they have come against some of the best offenses in the league. The Detroit Tigers are very far from the best offense in the league and I think he cooks today. Detroit has just a 67 wRC+ against righties, by far the worst in the league.
Drew Hutchison is unlikely to do much to stop the White Sox offense today. He has a career 4.96 ERA/4.44 FIP and has always struggled with homeruns.
White Sox -0.5 First 5 Innings (-120)
Houston Astros at Texas Rangers Betting Tips:
HOU – Jose Urquidy 5.04 ERA/4.93 FIP
TEX – Dane Dunning 4.41 ERA/3.68 FIP
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San Diego Padres at Chicago Cubs Betting Tips:
SDP – Sean Manaea 3.52 ERA/3.64 FIP
CHC – Kyle Hendricks 5.22 ERA/5.44 FIP
This looks like it’s going to be one of those Wrigley Field games. It’s hot, it’s humid, and winds are going to be blowing out at 15MPH. This should be a slugfest.
The System has this one about even with the Cubs offense being much better than the Padres. The Cubs have a 115 wRC+ over the past two weeks and hit lefties much better than the Padres hit righties.
On a day with winds like this, I am always going to go with the better offense when I can.
I almost never take the runs, but I almost never get a good price on them like this.
Cubs +1.5 (-133)
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Cleveland Guardians at Coloardo Rockies
CLE – Shane Bieber 2.91 ERA/2.64 FIP
COL – Antonio Senzatela 4.83 ERA/3.85 FIP
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Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Tips:
CIN – Tyler Mahle 5.07 ERA/3.69 FIP
ARI – Zach Davies 4.21 ERA/4.32 FIP
These teams gave us the over yesterday and I think they can do it again here.
The big part of that is Zach Davies, one of our favorite pitchers to target. He has a 5.06 ERA/4.83 FIP over his past five starts and the Reds offense has really been hitting well of late.
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Mahle has been unlucky, but he’s also struggled with the homeruns. Hitting homeruns is one thing that the Arizona offense does well.
The thing that put this one over the top for me is the bullpens. Both of them are bad and have been even worse over the past two weeks, both giving up a ton of homeruns.
Reds/Diamondbacks Over 9 Runs (-100)
Minnesota Twins at Seattle Mariners Betting Tips:
MIN – Joe Ryan 2.28 ERA/3.28 FIP
SEA – Logan Gilbert 2.41 ERA/3.14 FIP
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