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MLB betting tips for June 3rd, 2024.
3-0 last night! 107-71 this season.
W Yankees Moneyline (-134)
W Mariners -0.5 First 5 Innings (-135)
W Cardinals/Phillies Over 5 Runs First 5 Innings (-115)
I had counted the Yankees out and then they went out and had a 4-run ninth inning to win it.
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Three bets today.
All MLB tips are based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
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Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays Betting Tips:
BAL – Grayson Rodriguez
TOR – Kevin Gausman
This total is too low for two offenses this good despite who is on the mound. Both offenses are hitting well right now with wRC+ over 112 over the past two weeks.
Rodriguez has been worse on the road with a 5.48 ERA/4.08 FIP. A very high BABIP has cost him, but he’s also walking a ton. Patience is a strength of this Jays offense.
Gausman has also had horrendous luck at home with a .443 BABIP which has led to a 6.20 ERA/2.74 FIP. That will turn around, but maybe not today against a deep Orioles offense.
The bullpens should put this one over the top as each has struggled of late with FIPs over 4 over the past two weeks.
Orioles/Jays Over 7.5 Runs (-114)
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St. Louis Cardinals at Houston Astros Betting Tips:
STL – Kyle Gibson
HOU – Justin Verlander
A tale of two pitchers who have had luck on their side running into offenses that can change that.
Verlander has a 3.26 ERA/4.57 FIP this season with a 1.53 HR/9 rate. He’s still a valuable pitcher, but age has come for him. I watched him pitch against the Mariners last week and there were a ton of pitches that they let him get away with that should’ve been spanked. I don’t think the Cardinals will make those same mistakes here.
Gibson is a similar story with a 3.60 ERA/4.39 FIP. His walks are kind of high while he has gotten by on an unnaturally low BABIP which is not sustainable.
The Astros have a 113 wRC+ against righties on the season and a monster 130 wRC+ at home. The Cardinals offense has been hot for a month with most of their damage coming against righties.
Cardinals/Astros Over 8 Runs (-110)
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San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Angels Betting Tips:
SDP – Matt Waldron
LAA – Tyler Anderson
The Angels are coming off being swept and are just 2-8 over their last ten. I think their bad times will only worsen as this team has gotten some surprising performances from players who are unlikely to continue it.
That starts with today’s starter Tyler Anderson who has a 2.47 ERA/4.56 FIP on the season. He doesn’t have great strikeout numbers and has mostly gotten by thanks to an 87% left on base percentage and a .211 BABIP.
The Padres offense isn’t great against lefties, but a regression is coming for him. I’ll take my chances, especially with the Angels struggling bullpen behind him.
I like Matt Waldron a lot because he throws the knuckleball. How can you not love the knuckleball? He has a 4.15 ERA/2.76 FIP over his last five starts with a huge strikeout rate thanks to throwing it more.
The Angels have just a 90 wRC+ against righties and should strike out a bunch today. The bullpen is unlikely to be any solace as they have a 3.08 ERA/3.16 FIP over the last two weeks.
Padres Moneyline (-138)
