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MLB betting tips for June 7th, 2024.
2-0 last night! 116-75 this season!
W Braves Moneyline (-148)
W Yankees First 5 Innings Moneyline (-133)
The season’s unit total is now up to +17.11. Simply amazing. Baseball is the greatest sport in the world.
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Three bets today.
All MLB tips are based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
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Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds Betting Tips:
CHC – Justin Steele
CIN – Nick Lodolo
Steele has a 5.14 ERA/5.21 FIP over his last five starts and has allowed four or more runs in four of his past five starts. Teams are seeing the ball well from him and have a 1.32 WHIP against him during this stretch.
The Reds are good against lefties, and they have heated up against them lately with a 134 wRC+ over the past month.
Lodolo is a solid pitcher who has been much better at home. He’s posted a 3.74 ERA/3.55 FIP at home this year. The Cubs offense has been below average against lefties with a 96 wRC+, including some weak power numbers.
The Reds bullpen has performed very well of late while the Cubs bullpen is struggling. The System likes this game much more than the books do.
Reds Moneyline (-120)
Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels Betting Tips:
HOU – Framber Valdez
LAA – Griffin Canning
The Angels have been good about lefties, but the offense is so down right now that I’m not sure it matters. They have just a 64 wRC+ over the last two weeks.
Valdez has a 3.95 ERA/3.95 FIP this season. He had one awful start against the Angels where he allowed eight runs, but I think he can get revenge for it here.
I trust him much more than Canning who has a 4.69 ERA/5.30 FIP this season. The Astros offense has a 112 wRC+ against righties and a 114 wRC+ over the last two weeks. They’ve not been great on the road, but this is the match-up to fix it.
Astros -0.5 First 5 Innings (-103)
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Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres Betting Tips:
ARI – Brandon Pfaadt
SDP – Michael King
This is a good pitching match-up, but not one where I see both teams finishing so far below their average runs per game.
King is either going to allow 3+ runs or less than one. That’s how his season has gone so far at least. I am willing to be on the latter. Walks have been an issue and the Diamondbacks offense has been quite patient against righties. They have a 95 wRC+ against them, but they have hit better on the road with a 103 wRC+. The Padres bullpen has struggled a bit over the last two weeks.
Pfaadt has allowed three runs in three straight starts, all of which took place on the road. He has a 3.11 ERA/4.30 FIP on the road this season.
The Padres have been amazing against righties with a 119 wRC+ against them. I think they can hit Pfaadt a bit, and the Diamondbacks bullpen is about average.
Diamondbacks/Padres Over 7 Runs (-112)
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