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1-1 last night on Patreon.
W Phillies Over 4.5 Runs
L Pirates -0.5 First 5 Innings
Big runs from the Phillies, but the Pirates pulled the classic F5 move of scoring big in the sixth.
I’m toying with the F5 numbers a little bit. I felt the totals were a bit too high and not accounting for how that is usually when you see the pitcher’s best stuff. I am working on a way to look at pitcher’s F5 *only*, but that is a pretty involved process. Like spending a whole day rewriting code.
Instead, we’re going with home/road splits on runs scored and runs allowed over the first five for now. The change is only a few percentage points each way, but that can often be the difference.
All MLB tips are based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.
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Chicago White Sox at New York Yankees Betting Tips:
CHW – Lucas Giolito
NYY – Clarke Schmidt
The White Sox have been pretty weak against righties this year with just an 81 wRC+. They are not in a good spot right now either with a 79 wRC+ over the past two weeks. Schmidt has been unlucky this year with a 5.01 ERA/3.95 FIP. He has some big strikeouts numbers though and I think those come through for him against this weak offense.
The main part of this one is the Yankees offense though. Giolito has a 5.68 ERA/5.11 FIP on the road this season and the Yankees hit well at home. They have a 117 wRC+ over the past month. I expect most of the damage to be done early, but the White Sox have a big bullpen advantage as well.
Yankees Moneyline (-134)
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Oakland Athletics at Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Tips:
OAK – James Kaprielian
PIT – Mitch Keller
Picking on the Athletics didn’t do us well last night, but this is one of the top plays I’ve seen in a week or so at +3.07 and I’m going right back to it.
Keller has been amazing this season with a 3.25 ERA/2.84 FIP and the Athletics offense is in the mud. 78 wRC+ against righties, 69 wRC+ over the past month, and a 55 wRC+ over the last two weeks. The bullpen behind him is above average with a 90 FIP- this season.
Kaprielian has an 8.12 ERA/5.83 FIP this year so it’s not like he’s going to dominate. The bullpen behind him is the worst in baseball. Swing the bat and good things will happen.
Pirates -1.5 (-135)
Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds Betting Tips:
LAD – Tony Gonsolin
CIN – Luke Weaver
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New York Mets at Atlanta Braves Betting Tips:
NYM – Carlos Carrasco
ATL – Bryce Elder
Elder has been great this year with a 1.92 ERA/3.42 FIP and I’m done pretending the Mets offense is good. They have just a 101 wRC+ against righties this year with below average power. They have just a 96 wRC+ over the past two weeks.
Carrasco is one of the bottom pitchers going today with a 5.74 ERA/6.09 FIP. He’s had better results over his last two, but the problems have remained. Six homeruns allowed in six starts and a high walk is not encouraging. Braves have been human against righties, but a 106 wRC+ at home and a 104 wRC+ over the past two weeks in this match-up give me a lot of hope.
Braves -0.5 First 5 Innings (-110)
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St. Louis Cardinals at Texas Rangers Betting Tips:
STL – Matthew Liberatore
TEX – Dane Dunning
San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies Betting Tips:
SFG – John Brebbia/Sean Manaea
COL – Dinelson Lamet
Brebbia will be the opener and I expect him to be followed by Manaea. Considering the Rockies have just a 65 wRC+ against lefties this season, that would be the smart move. The Rockies offense is just bad and I don’t trust them to put up runs, even at home. The Giants bullpen has pitcher very well of late as well.
The Giants offense has hit righties very well with a 109 wRC+ and they are hot over the last two weeks with a 114 wRC+. Lamet is a converted reliever who is sitting on a 13.17 ERA/5.33 FIP. I don’t care if it’s 13 innings, that’s bad.
Giants Moneyline (-134)
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