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2-2 last time. 7-3 in the Finals on Patreon.
L Nuggets/Heat Over 214.5
W Nikola Jokic Over 50.5 Points/Rebounds/Assists
W Caleb Martin Over 13.5 Points/Rebounds/Assists
L Gabe Vincent Over 13.5 Points
I felt least good about the over in that one as it ended up being more of a defensive game. That was especially the case with Gabe Vincent as he shot just 2/10 from the field and 1/6 from three. I should’ve gone with the other two props I mentioned as those two both came in.
Five bets tonight, available free below. I also have MLB tips on Patreon.
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Denver Nuggets at Miami Heat Betting Tips:
For Miami, this is the series. Lose here and it’s over. 3-1 in the NBA Finals with the other team having home court is just too much to overcome. Even for this team. Everyone on both teams knows this so this should be a heck of a game. This will be the biggest game of the series and I’m making it my biggest betting night of the series as well.
It’s hard to say which way the Heat will go here. They had some success in game two going bigger, but that was completely exploited by the Nuggets in game two in a fashion where it’s hard to see them going back to it here. I think the Heat are at their best when they play faster and smaller with lots of three-point shooting. That’s their game and I would not be surprised for Kevin Love to be mothballed here.
I know it missed last time out, but I’m going back to the over here. I have a hard time imagining the Heat losing by 15 again and both teams should be in the 100s tonight.
Nuggets/Heat Over 211
Denver Nuggets at Miami Heat Player Prop Betting Tips:
We’ve been killing it on props in the Finals so we’re going right back to them here. We’re going a bit more role-player-centric tonight. The system has Jokic and Murray as plus plays, but below where I like them to be to bet. They are both over +2 on projected PRA and you know the minutes will be there. All these plays below are over +3.6.
The type Heat play of the day is Caleb Martin over 15.5 PRA. He hit this last time and appears to be fully recovered from that illness. His number should be a lot higher as prior to his illness he had hit in seven straight games. He is absolutely key for this Heat team.
My top Nuggets play is Michael Porter Jr. Over 17.5 PRA. He was called out by his coach after game two and his minutes were way down in game three which has dropped his total down to this level where I think it is a good value. He was well short of this in game three, but he also took seven shots and grabbed seven rebounds in just 21 minutes. That’s the kind of usage we like to see and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get hot here. You can’t keep a good scorer down. Prior to these last two games, he had scored 14+ in five straight.
Duncan Robinson is one that my system liked quite a bit last game as well, but I wasn’t sure about Tyler Herro’s status. If he had been back, he would’ve probably taken the Robinson minutes. He didn’t end up coming back and that cashed. I think it will again today. He’s shooting 7/11 from three in his last three games. Miami will need that again here. This is actually the system’s favorite play of the day as his usage is so high when on the court. It just depends on how much he will be.
The minutes have been there for KCP in every game, but he’s fallen short in each of his last three. So why go with him here? Well, he was well over this amount in five straight games prior to this series, and he’s been just a shot short of this number in all three games of this series. He’s shot 1/4 in the last two games and he’s not a guy that will do that again and again.
Caleb Martin Over 15.5 Points/Rebounds/Assists
Michael Porter Jr. Over 17.5 Points/Rebounds/Assists
Duncan Robinson Over 7.5 Points
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Over 7.5 Points
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