May 1st, 2021 MLB Betting Tips

Vin

A 2-2 record in MLB last night.

I said yesterday that the Yankees could hit the over by themselves and that’s exactly what they did, winning 10-0. That wind was no joke with the Yankees hitting five homers.

Our other win also came for the AL East as the Red Sox got a big win at Texas, 6-1.

The Mets offense stinks. They were facing one of the worst pitchers in the league and they weren’t able to hit him and only ended up with one run for the game. Just embarrassing. I know he won’t hit like this all season, but Francisco Lindor just signed a 10-year, $341 million deal and he’s hitting .189/.299/.243. Unacceptable!

We also took a loss with the Marlins and this one stunk. It was 0-0 after nine innings and they lost in extras. Boring. Pitching stinks, bring back hitting.

All tips based on the starting pitchers listed. Tips should be considered void if any pitching changes are made unless otherwise noted. Occasionally the “follower” will be listed as we are betting on who will pitch the bulk of the innings.

Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP wRC+ Rank wRC+ L14 Rank Bullpen Rank BP L14 Rank Park
BOS Eduardo Rodriguez 3.35 104 12 113 3 79 3 78 6  
TEX Jordan Lyles 6.09 91 28 97 13 114 25 97 15 100

The Red Sox were pretty good to us last night so why not go right back to them? Eduardo Rodriguez has been very solid to start the season with a 3.52 ERA/3.33 FIP and a big strikeout rate. It bares repeating just how much the Rangers love to strikeout.

Jordan Lyles goes for the Rangers and we’ve been picking on him all season. Why stop now? He has a 6.75 ERA/6.07 FIP across five starts this season and the Red Sox hit righties well.

Pick: Bet Red Sox -0.5 First 5 Innings (-130)

Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP wRC+ Rank wRC+ L14 Rank Bullpen Rank BP L14 Rank Park
LAD Dustin May 2.76 119 1 111 5 96 9 83 9  
MIL Brandon Woodruff 1.68 99 17 85 27 125 28 122 25 100

Brandon Woodruff is one of the best pitchers in the game right now, but this is a really difficult match-up. The Dodgers offense is tops in the league and at the very least they should be able to chase him early. With the Brewers bullpen struggling early, I like the Dodgers chances here.

Dustin May is just a solid pitcher with a good match-up. The Brewers offense has struggled mightily against right handed pitching this year and they are still without Christian Yelich. The Dodgers bullpen is very good as well. They’re just the better overall team, they should be winning here.

Pick: Bet Dodgers -126

Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners Betting Tips:

Pitcher FIP wRC+ Rank wRC+ L14 Rank Bullpen Rank BP L14 Rank Park
LAA Griffin Canning 7.02 106 10 116 2 92 6 95 14  
SEA Ljay Newsome 2.53 96 21 92 18 89 5 66 3 95

The system likes the Mariners here, but not enough for me to take them outright. It’s a very minor favorite so I thought we’d try taking the runs for once. The price on taking the runs isn’t too bad and the team has been playing well of late, winning three out of their past four games.

Griffin Canning has had some rough starts to begin the year and the Mariners should be able to hit him. His projections show that he is just not all that good. While Ljay Newsome has solid starts early, but is way above his projections.

A 5-4 kind of game seems to be in the cards here. If that is the final we’ll win, no matter who wins.

Pick: Bet Mariners +1.5 (-140)

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