May 20th, 2022 MLB & NBA Betting Tips

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1-0-1 in baseball last night. 1-1 in NBA.

The Diamondbacks and Cubs made it close, but the half run worked in our favor in the F5 under.

The Mariners got out to an early 4-0 lead, but they couldn’t hold it and allowed the Red Sox to tie it up by the time the fifth inning ended to give us a push.

In retrospect, I probably should’ve added some sort of caveat if Horford was cleared for Miami/Boston. He was a big reason I was behind the Heat and he ended up being cleared. The over came in to keep us even for the night.

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Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles Betting Tips:

TBR – Jalen Beeks 1.72 ERA/3.36 FIP (Opener)
BAL – Tyler Wells 4.18 ERA/4.14 FIP

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Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jays Betting Tips:

CIN – Luis Castillo 3.93 ERA/3.81 FIP (Projected)
TOR – Hyun-Jin Ryu 3.87 ERA/3.87 FIP (Projected)

Both of these starters have made starts this season, but it’s not a big sample size. They’ve had struggles and I put their current stats in the System and it still likes this play.

The reason for that is both of these offenses have letdown early. The Reds have been the worst offense in baseball against lefties. They’ve hit better of late, but lefties continue to be an issue.

Toronto is going to breakout in a big way one of these days, but it hasn’t happened yet. They have just a 78 wRC+ over the past two weeks and only have a 97 wRC+ against righties thus far.

Reds/Blue Jays Under 4.5 First 5 Innings (-115)

Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Sox Betting Tips:

SEA – Robbie Ray 4.62 ERA/4.15 FIP
BOS – Michael Wacha 1.38 ERA/3.91 FIP

Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals Betting Tips:

MIN – Devin Smeltzer 4.52 ERA/4.46 (Projected) FIP
KCR – Daniel Lynch 3.30 ERA/4.40 FIP

Smeltzer has only made one start this year, but he’s not the kind of guy who sets the world on fire. He’s a low strikeout guy that profiles to give up homeruns. He’s fifth starter territory.

The same can be said for Daniel Lynch. He’s been lucky early, but is due for some regression. He’s hanging his hat on a low left on base percentage and his HR/FB rate is probably a little low.

The Twins offense is definitely showing up today. They have a huge 120 wRC+ against lefties on the year, a high walk rate, and they hit homeruns. I like them a lot here. The Royals bullpen has really struggled this season.
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KC is below average on offense, but they have hit the ball well over the last two weeks with a 103 wRC+.

Another rare double bet as I like the Twins early and the over for the game. Nine runs feels very likely in this one.

Twins First 5 Innings (-130)
Twins/Royals Over 8 (-121)118)

Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors Game 2 Betting Tips:

For the double bet tonight, we’re going with over on Andrew Wiggins threes. He’s made three in each of his last two games.

I like this bet as he attempted eight in the last game so it appears like the Mavericks will give him that shot. There are no good answers when defending the Warriors, but if their choice is to let Wiggins shoot then I think he can make them pay for that. At least twice.

Andrew Wiggins Over 1.5 Three pointers made (-118)
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